Ron Raymond's Sports Betting Blog

Here are today's ATS Stats and Trends for Friday, May 9, 2008:

When TORONTO team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Vs Non Division Opponent - Allowed 8 runs AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a night game.
SU Record: 5-7-0
O/U/P Record: 2-9-1

When DETROIT team played as a Home team - Last 2 years - After a non division game - Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent - Coming off a 1 game loss.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-5-1

When MILWAUKEE team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a series loss - Coming off a Road loss.
SU Record: 11-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-6-3

When MILWAUKEE team played as a Home team - Last 3 years - After a non division game - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series - Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 2-8-0

When NY YANKEES team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite.
SU Record: 13-3-0
O/U/P Record: 9-7-0

When TAMPA BAY team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite - After a conference game - Vs. Right handed pitchers.
SU Record: 9-2-0
O/U/P Record: 2-8-1

When SAN DIEGO team Played as home team as a Favorite - Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 - During the month of May.
SU Record: 13-3-0
O/U/P Record: 4-10-2

When NY METS team Played as home team as a Favorite - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Vs NL CENTRAL opponent.
SU Record: 20-4-0
O/U/P Record: 14-10-0

When NY METS team Played as home team as a Favorite - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Playing on Friday.
SU Record: 3-8-0
O/U/P Record: 2-9-0

When NY METS team played as a home team - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Vs NL CENTRAL opponent.
SU Record: 21-5-0
O/U/P Record: 16-10-0

When NY METS team played as a home team - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Playing on Friday.
SU Record: 3-9-0
O/U/P Record: 2-10-0

KANSAS CITY: When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite - Vs. Right handed pitchers - After a conference game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a night game - Coming off a 3 run lost - Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game.
SU Record: 12-3-0
O/U/P Record: 9-5-1

TAMPA BAY: When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During a night game - Before a non conference game - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Coming off a 5 run win.
SU Record: 13-2-0
O/U/P Record: 9-6-0

SAN DIEGO: When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing on Friday - After a non division game - During the month of May - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog - Coming off a Road loss.
SU Record: 12-3-0
O/U/P Record: 8-6-1

COLORADO: When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Last 5 years - Coming off a 7 Game Home Stand - Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent.
SU Record: 9-7-0
O/U/P Record: 2-14-0

SAN DIEGO: When ANY MLB team played as a home team - During the 2008 season - Total is between 6.5 to 7.0.
SU Record: 3-8-0
O/U/P Record: 2-9-0

ATSDatabase Baseball Betting Stats for May 5, 2008

By Ron Raymond

Now that parity is the handicappers and bettors worst nightmare, bettors and cappers are now forced to find a way to compliment the percentages into their handicapping. The fundamental of handicapping games will always play a role into your make picks process, but you need to find a tool that includes parity. Let’s face it, with parity in each sport, it’s getting harder to be a consistent winner on a daily basis and baseball is one of those sports that will eat you alive if you don’t include the percentages.

When I refer to the “percentages”, I mean its important now to have data that goes back 10 years or more and find angles, systems and trends that back your original pick. Stats and trends are your friends, but they shouldn’t be your only source of doing picks, but consider the past mistakes for current profits.

Here are today’s ATSDatabase Baseball Stats and Trends for Monday, May 05, 2008:

When SEATTLE team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During a night game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog - Coming off a Road loss.
SU Record: 10-2-0
O/U/P Record: 10-2-0

When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a Road team - Vs Conference Opponent - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Allowed 5 runs AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a 1 run win.
SU Record: 12-3-0
O/U/P Record: 7-8-0

When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a Road team - During a night game - 1st game of a series - Coming off a 1 game loss - Coming off a night game.
SU Record: 5-7-0
O/U/P Record: 1-10-1

When CHI WHITE SOX team Played as road team as a Underdog - 4th game of a series - During a night game.
SU Record: 8-3-0
O/U/P Record: 2-9-0

When NY METS team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - During the month of May.
SU Record: 4-7-0
O/U/P Record: 2-8-1

When ARIZONA team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite - Last 4 years - Vs. Left handed pitchers.
SU Record: 6-11-0
O/U/P Record: 15-2-0

When COLORADO team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - After a division game - During the month of May.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-4-2

LOS ANGELES ANGELS: When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - After a non division game - Vs AL CENTRAL opponent - During the month of May - Coming off a Home win - Coming off a day game.
SU Record: 15-3-0
O/U/P Record: 9-8-1

I’m often asked from new sports bettors, “what’s the difference between a team trend and a system trend?”

A “Team Trend” is when “one” particular team has been involved in certain situational outcomes from past games. A “System Trend” is when “more then one” team has been involved in various situational outcomes.

Now if you’re wondering, which one brings more value to the bettors, well that’s the 64 dollar question boggling bettors the last 20 years and it’s in the eye of the beholder. Here’s the thing, every trend and system trends brings different elements to the situation. If you recalled in my last article this week, I mentioned how “myths” play a big role in the numbers and how gamblers and handicappers like to put allot of stock in such situations like how teams do “vs. left handed pitchers” or this is a popular go against trends, and it’s “to play against a home team from the West Coast coming off a long road trip."

Here’s what my researched as proven on this last trend. Instead of playing against home teams coming off a 10 games or more road trip, you should be “playing on” WEST COAST teams coming off a long road trip, as every WEST COAST teams have a .500 or better record in their first home game after an extended road trip of 10 games ore more.

WEST COAST TEAMS RECORDS
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• San Francisco 15-7 SU and 10 overs 11 unders 1 push
• L.A. Angels 8-7 SU and 8 overs 6 unders 0 pushes
• Arizona 8-8 SU and 10 overs 6 unders 0 pushes
• L.A. Dodgers 9-7 SU and 6 overs 9 unders 1 push
• Oakland 12-8 SU and 13 overs 7 unders and 0 pushes
• San Diego 14-12 SU and 13 overs 12 unders 1 push
• Seattle 15-11 SU and 13 overs 12 unders 1 push

These are team trends, now when I ask the database to give me the result of when “any team is at home and they are coming off a 10 game or more road trip”, the SYSTEM TREND says the home teams are 262 wins, 239 loses and the OVER/UNDER favors the OVER at 262-239-22.

There you have it, there’s value in doing your research and no matter what people think about baseball stats and trends, either Team Trends or System Trends; the numbers don’t lie!

Here’s some Baseball Team and System Trends for Friday, April 18th 2008.

When PHILADELPHIA played as a Favorite - During Last 2 Years - Won Last Game by 8 Runs or More; The Phillies are 11-0 SU in this spot the last 2 years.

When MILWAUKEE Played as road team as a Favorite - During Last 5 Years - Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less; the UNDER is 6-1-0 for the Brewers in this spot.

When DETROIT played as a road team - During Last 4 Years - Lost Last Game by 10 Runs or More; the Tigers are 0-6 SU in their next game L4Y.

When CLEVELAND team played as a Road team - Playing on Friday - 1st game of a series - Coming off a Home win - Coming off a 1 game win; the UNDER is 9-2-0 for the Indians in this role.

When ANY MLB Team played as a -100 to -120 Home Favorite - 1st game of a series - After a conference game - Vs NL EAST opponent - Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent - Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a 1 game win; the OVER is 12-4-0 for the Home Fave in this spot. (Mets vs. Phillies game)

When WASHINGTON team played as Road team as an Underdog - Playing on Friday - Before a conference game - Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog; the OVER is 6-4-0 for the Nationals/Expos in this situation since ’97.

When TORONTO team played as a Home team - 1st game of a series - Playing on Friday - Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent - Coming off a Home loss; the Toronto Blue Jays are 8-2 SU in this spot since ’97.

When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - During the month of April - Coming off a 2 game losing streak - Coming off a night game; the Home Team is 35-17 SU in this role. (Detroit vs. Toronto game)

Ever since I’ve started handicapping baseball, one of the greatest myths I’ve encountered was the “team facing the lefty.” To be honest, there’s some juggling to do for the managers, as some batters cannot hit left handed pitching.

Here are some notable big name players who can’t hit left handed pitchers so far this season.

(Teams - At Bats - Batting Avg.)
------------------------------------
Florida Uggla 18 0.056
Cleveland Michaels 16 0.063
Cleveland Blake 12 0.083
CWS Uribe 10 0.1
Oakland Buck 20 0.1
Angels Anderson 9 0.111
NYY Cano 9 0.111
Cleveland Gutierrez 17 0.118
Cleveland Cabrera 15 0.133
Cleveland Perralta 15 0.133
Atlanta Teixeira 22 0.136
Oakland Barton 22 0.136
Kansas City Gordon 14 0.143
Toronto Thomas 7 0.143
NYM Reyes 13 0.154
Oakland Hannahan 13 0.154
Phillies Laroche 13 0.154
Florida Jacobs 19 0.158
Boston Manny 6 0.167
Boston big Papi 6 0.167
Detroit Cabrera 6 0.167
Oakland Cust 9 0.167
Oakland Ellis 24 0.167
Phillies Bay 12 0.167
Reds Freel 11 0.182
Dodgers Martin 11 0.182
Seattle Ichiro 11 0.182
Seattle Ibanez 11 0.182
Tampa Bay Gomes 11 0.182
Texas Byrd 11 0.182

As you can see, some of the top hitters in baseball have a heck of a time vs. left handed pitching and if you’re the Oakland A’s or the Cleveland Indians, you need to start looking for more right handed batters.

However, here’s the funny thing, the Oakland A’s are 4-3 SU vs. Left handed pitchers this season, but you might want to consider betting on the UNDER, as it’s 6-1-0 on the season when they face the southpaws.

Although it’s only the start of the 3rd week, here’s an early indication on how some teams do vs. left handed pitchers. One thing that jumps out, the Angels and Yankees have been lucky to avoid the southpaws, as they’ve only faced 1 left handed pitcher in the first two weeks of the season. The Milwaukee Brewers are perfect vs. the Randy Johnsons of the world, as they are 5-0 SU vs. lefties and the Diamondbacks and Cards are 5-1 SU. The UNDER is perfect for these teams; Houston (0-4-0), Kansas City (0-4-0) and Texas (0-3-0). Teams who’ve been able to tag the southpaws for runs are Milwaukee (4-1-0) and Pittsburgh (4-1-0).

In general, Road Teams who face left handed pitching this season are 30-22 SU and the OVER/UNDER is 25-27-0. Plus, Road Dogs are 23-17 SU and the UNDER is 22-18-0 in the exact same spot.

Furthermore, using some different angles on where to get a betting edge; when road teams vs. left handed pitchers who are coming off game that started a left handed pitcher, are 11-3 SU this season. Therefore, once a team has seen some left handed pitching, they tend to get better in the second game, so far! Which means, the Oakland A’s (Eveland) would be a nice Baseball Underdog for this evening vs. the White Sox (Danks).

Baseball Tip for Tonight: When ANY MLB Team played as a +100 to +120 Road Underdog - After a conference game - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Coming off a 1 run win - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; the Road Dog is 11-6 SU in this role since 1997. Play on the Oakland A’s +100.

Never like using this blog to have a bitch fest, as it comes across as being a poor sport or a sore loser and just for the record, I had the UNDER in the Boston vs. Montreal game last night and it pushed! So, I’m not writing this with vengeance in mind.

However, my issue is with the NHL referees who think they are bigger then the game when it comes to the NHL playoffs. We have refs who wave off goals like they are doing the 100-meter breast stroke; we have refs not jumping, but leaping on top of nets to call “no goals”. What the hell is going on with the zebras in the NHL come playoff time? They always say, you can tell when a ref does a good game when you don’t noticed them or at the end of the game you say: "oh by the way, who where those refs tonight?" I’m old school when it comes to the playoffs, I feel you should only call a penalty when it’s very obvious, or when a player doesn’t have the security of every skater on the ice. Plus, to call a penalty in the last 3 minutes of a playoff game should only happen when it takes away a clear and obvious scoring chance. If you ask me, put the whistle away in the pocket in the last 3 minutes and overtime.

In fact, when it comes to overtime, you shouldn’t be calling anything, as these are the playoffs and let the players decide who wins the game, they don’t need help from the refs. If you watched that Boston vs. Montreal game last night, the refs seemed to have gotten carried up with the frantic energy in the Bell Centre last night and called the most ridiculous penalty in the dying minutes of the game, which gave Montreal a 2-0 lead in the series.

I’m not going to write about every game, but for the “big picture” of the NHL playoffs, please let the players play hockey, keep the stupid players off the ice and let’s have some fire wagon hockey!

Hockey Tip for Sunday Night: When the Calgary Flames scored 0 goals for in their last game, they are 5-0 SU in their next games the last 3 years! Take Calgary tonight +105!

Ever have a tire that keeps leaking and instead of just replacing the tire or rim, you just keep putting more air in it? Kind of stupid when you think about it right? To be honest, it took me about 2 years to figure it out why my site was leaking, and instead of fixing it, I just kept putting more “hot air” in it. Its human nature to fix something when you “think” it’s broken, but when it’s not broken and you still wonder why it’s not working, you do about 500 trial and errors to get back at a place where you were once enjoying success. Did you know it took Edison about 900 tries to invent the light bulb? Actually, when somebody asked Thomas Edison why it took him 900 tries to invent the light bulb, he replied; I just found 900 ways it didn’t work! Brilliant optimism don’t you think?

Which brings me to people who do business on the internet and why they keep circling the wagons to find a hitch? You see, there’s only 2 ways to make money on the internet, actually 3 if you live in a trailer park, but let’s focus on two for now; you need to provide a service or sell a product. Period! When you have a service, you can either sell your service and ask for a fee; or give it out for free and hope for some reason it’s popular and it attracts thousands of eyeballs. If you’re selling a product like golf balls, then you don’t need advertising money, just a good marketing strategy on and off line.

If you’re product is information and you’re giving it out for free, you better make sure it’s popular, that’s why vice content is the big money maker, things like Gambling and Porn, as it’s one of the main things we do in our “social” time, and listing to music. However, the music angle is a tougher nut to crack, thanks to the guys at Napster for spearheading that headache for the music industry.

Nevertheless, my theory on doing business on the internet is Google has screwed up the whole internet, because if we want something, what do we do? Say it with me; “we Google it!” What do you do when you have a sore stomach? Go to google and type in "causes for sore stomach” or if you need help with a resume, you type in “resume examples”. You see, why would people pay for anything when google gives everything out for free? I’m not a psychologist and I’m not related to Frasier Crane, but I do understand behavioral patterns, sort of; as I’ve got an addictive personality and when I do something, I tend to do it to extreme and do it well too!

I love reading articles on “social networking” sites when people talk about monetizing from their audience on such sites as “facebook” and “myspace”. Give me a freaking break! I ask people all the time, when you go to facebook or myspace, when was the last time you clicked on a banner or bought something? Like never right? In fact, don’t restrict that thinking to just social networking sites, when was the last time you went to ESPN, USA Today or your local newspaper site online and clicked on a banner? I would guesstimate 80% of people who go to social networking sites don’t buy anything online. This is an “on-demand” world we live in and the only time you will buy something is when something breaks or leaks like a tire! Plus, keep in mind; we have more distractions and options in our lives now, things like 1500 specialty channels on cable and satellite radio, things that have “subscriptions” fees attached to them. Plus, you will see a day where it will cost you to watch any games on TV. Want to watch that Football game on Sunday, order it! This is fine with me, because I’m a sports junkie who chooses to have this as my main distraction in life.

Which brings me back to Google, we’ve develop a behavioral pattern online not to pay for anything, because you will find a way to get it for free off google anyway, or from a site you find on google. In fact, Google is finding out they’ve created their own 3-headed monster and are seeing their stock price go from a high of $747.24 a share to today’s price of $465.25. Plus, just pick up a paper, they are worried that people will no longer buy “ad words” and that’s because the people who were buying all the “ad words” where people trying to keep their own sites going and getting some of that saturated traffic. Plus, I have two other theories in life, your whole world changes every 7 years and the law of average always evens out in the end. Just look at your circle of friends? How many are still in your circle after 7 years? Those who stuck around are true friends, the rest were just acquaintances.

As for doing business on the internet, it took a few years, but people are finally realizing it’s tougher to get a return on your investment these days and 80% of the advertising you spend online now, you might as well kiss that ad money good-bye, because you ain’t getting that ROI back! How many times have you spent money on advertising in the last 2 years and got your money back? Advertising barely works, it’s only good to keep your name in the game.

Granted, the world is a different place today and the fear of recession is on everybody’s mind, but big companies are holding back the purse strings and if you don’t have a site that draws over 2000 unique visitors a day, you might as well start looking for a new venture in life, because today’s internet world is all about getting things for free and breaking even.

Where do I think we are going? Since the caveman years, governments have always relied on vices to ease the financial pains and that’s why cigarettes and booze played a huge role in the 60’s to today. However, now that the masses have realized google is their friend, they are realizing smoking cigarettes is an ugly way to die and it’s slowly being phased out of people lives. However, what are we going to replace that sin tax with? You know what they say about addictions right, you always replace one addiction with another one! Say hello to online gambling friends?

Therefore, I feel online gaming will be the next big industrial boom “online” within the next 5 years, as evolution is taking more time than predicted. Plus, now that the industry has over 12 years of experience from the brick and mortar operations who were test driving the software and technology of the future and I’m sure they’ve worked out every software bug or have seen every types of schemes thieves will try to steal from the private and public companies of the future.

As for today’s world on making money on the net, I believe internet advertising will only be beneficial for sites that draw over 5000+ unique visitors a day and they must be dabbling in some form of vice or music industry, as social networking sites are a recipe for a financial disaster. People will never pay to keep their profile in a space and they will just head to the next site who wants to pick up the tab or they will google one. Plus, there will always be somebody who will come along and build a new site and says “but this one will be different” and they’ll be gone in 7 years too!

If you’re in the online business and you don’t have thousands of eyeballs on your site or a product that is “on-demand”, then you’re better off keeping your site as a “hobby” site, because the elite industrialist of this world will be very diligent on where they place their money and expect a return a return on their investments. Keep in mind, 90% of everything we need on the internet has been invented, what can you bring to the table that will make decision makers change their mind and advertise or buy from you?

Please excuse me, while I google “how to fix a tire leak?”

Every sports bettor has an itch to scratch and for some, this is the longest time of the year, because once the March Madness champions are crowned, it’s officially known as “slow season” in the sports betting industry. By the way, congrats to the Kansas Jayhawks for putting on a great tournament and if you ask me, the Jayhawks won this championship on Sunday March 30th vs. Davidson. If there’s one thing I’ve taken from sports the last 10 years, teams who can overcome games such as the one Kansas (59) and Davidson (57) played, are teams who know how to win. Plus, teams who can make clutch 3-pointers at the buzzer and then carry that momentum in the overtime are teams of destiny. When it’s all said and we look back 10 or 20 years from now, that 3 point shot Mario Chalmers made to send the game into overtime might be considered one of the great clutch shots in tournament history.

Now that Pro Basketball is coming down the final stretch of their season and heading into the playoffs, now is a good time to start dabbing into the baseball betting season and the need for winning baseball picks can be had at the Phoenix Sports Ticket. Sports gamblers for some reason have always said; “Baseball is one of the hardest sports to win on a consistent basis”. However, the Phoenix Sports Ticket has some of the best sports handicappers in the business and you can get their free baseball picks each day in the sports handicapping section.

One of the greatest baseball betting systems I’ve been using the last few years is betting on two baseball underdog picks a day. When you bet on two baseball underdogs, you just need to hit one of the two picks to make a profit for that day and keep in mind, baseball is the type of sport that produces anywhere from 90 to 105 baseball games a week! Therefore, you have anywhere from 10 to 15 games a day and two baseball picks that pay dog money will squeak out a profit. Let’s face it, if you’re a $100, $500 or $1000 bettor, coming out $10, $50 or $250 on a 1-1 day sure feels better than losing betting heavy chalk. Plus, by chance you have a bad day and go 0-2 and let’s face it, we’ve all had those days, and more then once may I add, the sting is less than betting two times -140 chalk!

How are you doing with your baseball picks? Are you winning, are you betting baseball in any particular fashion? If you’re having some problems winning on a consistent basis, don’t be shy to try out a sports service to get you out of your funk, as sometimes it’s wise to let a professional handicapper get you back on your feet and who’s done all the leg work. Let’s face it, it takes allot of time to handicap the games, you just don’t glare the daily newspaper standings and look at the pitching matchups and make your baseball picks. You need to really have a method or a strong valid reason on why you like your sports betting picks, and that’s why by following a sports handicapper can get you back on track.

You wouldn’t buy stocks on your own if you don’t have a clue about what your investing into right? Take the same approach to sports betting, get your winning baseball picks from professional sports handicappers who’ve been around the block and help you build your bankroll. Plus, the nice thing about the set up over at Phoenixsports.com, all the handicappers picks are guaranteed to win or you don’t pay!