Ron Raymond's Sports Betting Blog

The 2008 Stanley Cup Playoffs start on Wednesday, April 9th, but truth be told, they started two weeks ago and finished this Sunday!

What a great race down the stretch as both Stanley Cup finalist from last season, Ottawa and Anaheim were able to shake off the Stanley Cup hangover. However, you can tell it came at a cost, as both teams had their struggles and the jury is still out on this Ottawa team, as the consensus is that they will be escorted out of the first round.

Would you believe there’s only one NHL team in the 2008 Stanley Cup playoffs that have six 20-goals scorers? Take a guess? Detroit, nope! Pittsburgh, nope! Ottawa, nope! Can you say the Philadelphia Flyers! That’s right; the Flyers Six-Pack shooters are Briere (38), Carter (29), Knuble (29), Richards (28), Hartnell (24) and Lupul (20). But it’s hard to trust a team who went on a 10-game losing streak in February and have questionable goaltending. Nevertheless, give the Flyers credit, they fought until the end and won 7 of their 9 games to enter the playoffs via the front door.

If you’ve followed my advice in previous NHL Stanley Cup playoff races, you know my theory is strong goaltending and defense will get you through the early rounds. However, I’m going to add a bit of sand paper to my formula this year, as the Anaheim Ducks have proven team toughness plays a huge role in the later rounds. Goaltending is still key and going back 15 years, the only none North American goalies to win a Stanley Cup was Dominik Hasek and Nikolai Khabibulin, and if the Calgary Flames intend to win it all this year, it might be Curtis Joseph who will come out as the Conn Smyth winner, as history has proven the Stanley Cup playoffs are not European friendly.

Here’s my First Round Previews:

Montreal vs. Boston: The Canadiens are 17-3 SU in their last 20 head to head matchups vs. the Bruins and 8-0 this season. The Canadiens have a great young team and Kovalev is having a Hart type season, but this Canadiens team is too young and small to win it all this season. I see them going to the Conference championship finals vs. Pittsburgh, but they will need the X-Factor Carey Price to pull a Patrick Roy playoff magic to win it all. Montreal is like New York, they have the mystery of past spirits watching over them! Heck, just look up at the rafters for proof! Plus, they have the best fans in hockey, so that will help in the early rounds. As for the Bruins, hard to win when you can’t score goals and you haven’t beaten the first round opponents in 8 tries this season. The Bruins will try to intimidate the Habs, but they Canadiens will make them pay with their explosive Power play. In order for the Bruins to win this series, Tim Thomas will need to steal a few games on the road and the Bruins will need to implement some type of trap system to slow down the flying Habs. If Montreal gets to the 3rd or 4th round, they are 0-3 SU vs. teams with a winning record of 61% or higher.

Prediction: Montreal in 6 games.

New Jersey vs. New York Rangers: The New Jersey Devils have been involved in 43 one-goal games this season and Martin Brodeur is the most valuable player on both teams. However, when you look at this New York Rangers team, they seem to have his number this season, as the Rangers won 7 of the 8 division games this season. Furthermore, in games vs. teams above 60% to 70% this season; the Rangers are 5-1 SU in this spot. New Jersey lacks the power forwards to advance and that’s why I believe the Rangers will advance to the next round, despite not having home ice advantage. I really like Lundqvist but when was the last time a Swedish goalie brought their team to the Stanley Cup? It’s too bad there’s no shootout in the playoffs, because the Rangers would have the best goalie in that department!

Prediction: Nevertheless, Rangers in 7 games.

Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa: The Senators entered the Playoffs via the backdoor, as they needed help from the Florida Panthers to enter the playoffs. Let’s face it, the Ottawa Senators are a team in crisis, they have serious internal problems and Martin Gerber has 1 playoff win lifetime! Not to mention, Ray Emery is public enemy number 1 in Ottawa and has only played once since February 28th. Don’t be surprise if Glass from Bingo comes up and starts a few playoff games, hell, what do they have to lose by starting a AHL goalie? The Penguins have everything going for them, their goaltending is better than last season, they have Malkin and Crosby playing well and the veteran leadership in Roberts is back. However, Ottawa has owned the Pens in their most recent history, but without Alfredsson and Fischer in the line up, this team is not the same. The Sens are 3-8 without Alfie in the line up this season and have won 9 of their last 25 games down the stretch. Don Cherry says he likes this Ottawa team and believes they Sens have not quit on Murray and Cherry knows his hockey. This is one of the hardest games to handicap, because on paper the Sens have the team to go far, but they have serious chemistry issues inside the room and you just wonder if they can gel as a team for the next 2 months. Tough call!

Prediction: Penguins in 6 games.

Washington vs. Philadelphia: The feel good story of these playoffs is the Washington Capitals and who can blame the media for pumping them up? The Caps made a great rally to make the playoffs and the head coach Bruce Boudreaux is looking like a coach of the year candidate. Everything has a feel good story for the Caps, but I’m not riding the short bus with them to win the first round! Let’s face it, they won the Southeast division and with 94 points, should be in the 8th position. After Ovechkin, rookie Backstrom and the old veteran Federov, the puck stops there! Huet is unproven in the playoffs and the Flyers have 6 players with 20 goals or more and can wear down this small Capitals team. The Caps have played in 41 one-goal games this season, winning 21 of those games, so they are use to playing close games.

Prediction: Flyers in 7 games

Detroit vs. Nashville: Can somebody take away the Kool-Aid they were drinking at TSN last night during their 3 hour preview show? Mike Millbury and some of his friends think the Nashville Predators will be the surprise team of the first round and beat the Red Wings. I’m not buying into what they are selling, Hasek is in fine form and the Preds don’t have enough weapons on offense to keep up with this Red Wings unit. The Red Wings are 13-7 SU in their last 20 head to head meeting with the Predators and 12-3 SU at home vs. Nashville. The Preds will come out swinging and try to intimidate the Red Wings, but the Red Wings power play will make them pay! The Red Wings were 10-5 SU vs. teams with a winning record between 51% to 69% this season, while Nashville was 7-11 SU. When it’s all said and done, using the bully factor vs. the Red Wings will cost them this series. But don’t get me wrong, I still feel the Red Wings are the Atlanta Braves of hockey and will make an exit in the second round.

Prediction: Red Wings in 5 games.

Anaheim vs. Dallas: On paper, the Anaheim Ducks should win the Stanley Cup again this season; but they’ve had their issues with the Stars in Dallas, as they’ve only won 3 of their last 10 games and they are 3-11-1 SU since 2003 in big D! But when you look at this defense and they’ve added Schneider and you have one of the top playoff goalies in Giguere, it’s hard to fade them. The Stars have good speed, but the physical play of the Ducks in a 7 game series will be the determining aspect. My only concern with the Ducks is the fatigue factor, as they’ve played into June last season, opened up the season in England and could be tired down the stretch, especially if they meet Calgary who can bump and grind with the best of them!

Prediction: Anaheim in 6 games.

San Jose vs. Calgary: The San Jose Sharks seem to be the top 1 or 2 consensus to win it all this year and it’s easy to feel that way after the positive regular season and the 108 points they picked up. However, when I look at this Sharks teams, I see no winners, I see people who have underachieved their whole career when it came to the playoffs. Everybody loves big Joe Thornton, but what has he won? Campbell was a nice pick up at the trade deadline, but what has he won? Same with Cheechoo and Marleau? Ron Wilson, what has he ever won? Nabokov? Plus, what was the message they were trying to send in their last game of the year vs. Dallas? They all of a sudden got tough? I’m not buying into the Sharks this season, they under achieved every playoff season and they are facing a team in which I believe will be in the Stanley Cup finals. Calgary on paper has 4 good lines, solid defense and a two goalie system with experience. Not to mention one of the toughest coaches in the NHL who has a Stanley Cup ring. Plus, they have what I call the perfect trio combo, Iginla, Phaneuf and Kipper in nets. Earlier I stated only 2 none North American goalie has ever won a Stanley Cup in the last 15 years, but I think Cujo will be the main guy down the stretch. Call it a hunch, but that’s what my crystal ball says! The Flames will wear down their opponents in each round and when it’s all said and done, I would not be surprised if each series goes to 7 games.

Prediction: Flames in 7 games.

Minnesota vs. Colorado: If this was the 90’s, then the Colorado Avalanche would have the best team on paper, but this is 2008! When it’s all said and done, this series will be won by one factor; goaltending! Theodore has been lights out down the stretch and Backstrom will need to prove he’s the go to guy in the spring. The Avs lack the physical part and the Wild lack the goal scoring, as they are the only team along with the Bruins, who only have two 20-goal scorers on the team. However, the Wild will try to wear down the Avs with their tough play, but that will only get you through one round, because the next round, every other team can match their grinding. The Wild have been involved in 40 one-goal games this season, winning 23 of them. The Wild are 7-3 SU vs. the Avs in their last 10 home games with the UNDER going 1-8-1.

Prediction: Minnesota in 6 games.

If there’s one piece of advice I would like to share with novice bettors, don’t look at each series as the number 1 ranked team vs. the number 8th ranked team or number 2 vs. number 7, because when you look at it very closely, were talking about teams who are probably 5 points or less better then their opponents. Just look at the Bruins, 2 more wins and they could have been a 5th ranked team. Just look at the Flames, they are ranked 7th, but had the best road record in their division. Ignore the rankings; they are just positional numbers to determine who plays where and who. When it’s all said and done, teams who get the best goaltending, wears down their opponents in the physical department, are the teams who win the Stanley Cup in June!

My Stanley Cup prediction: Calgary Flames in 7 games over Pittsburgh.