The 2009 CFL Grey Cup

By CFL Handicapper Ron Raymond

November, 24^th 2009

The Montreal Alouettes are a -9.5 point favorite this Sunday in the 97^th edition of the Grey Cup in Calgary against the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the offshore sportsbooks have made the over/under on the game at 55.5. Since 1996, the East has only been a favorite to win the Grey Cup 5 times, while the West has been favored 7 times and the line was a Pick’em in 2005 between the Eskimos and Alouettes.

The Alouettes didn’t have to wait long for redemption; they will get another kick at the can this Sunday to win the Grey Cup, as they let it slip away last year in Montreal in front of their fans as a -2 point favorite against the Stampeders.

The bookmaker’s job is to create a betting line which will bring even action on both teams and their worst nightmare happened last weekend when Montreal blew the doors opened on the Lions and hung 56 points on Wally Buono’s team. In my view, Montreal is the class of the CFL this season, they average 34.53 points per game on offense compared to Saskatchewan’s 28.89 and their defense gives up 18 points per game, compared to 26.05 for the Riders. I believe the bookmakers will get balance action on the game, but in my view, this Grey Cup has Alouettes blowout written all over.

Montreal was 15-2 SU as a favorite this season and 7-2 SU vs. non-division teams. However, when the total is 54.5 or higher this year, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0-0 for the Alouettes and its 6-1-0 for the Roughriders. The big question for the Riders entering this Grey Cup game will be consistency, they are 3-6-1 SU this season when they are coming off a win and history is not on their side, as they are 3-21 straight up vs. Montreal as an Underdog since 1996.

But, if you’re a Saskatchewan Roughriders fan and you’re looking for a ray of hope, I found this betting system that favors the UNDERDOG Riders this Sunday. Anytime you have a Favorite (MTL) in the month of November and they scored 50 points or more in their last game, they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their next contest. Not many occurrences, but still a ray of light for the Green and White.

Montreal won both meetings against Saskatchewan this season, 43-10 was the first score during Week 3 in Saskatchewan, Montreal was a -4 point road favorite. During Week 8, the Als won 34-25 at Molson Stadium as an -11.5 point home chalk, but everybody knows about the CFL, once Labour day comes, it’s a whole new season.

Bottom line, the Alouettes offense is too potent for this Riders defense and when they aren’t picking you apart with the pass, Avon Coburne will find the holes with the run. Plus, Marc Trestman is a mastermind when it comes to game strategy and look for the Alouettes to come out with some different sets on offense to throw the Riders off balance.

If there’s one thing for sure, you should see a great game, because 12 of the last 13 Grey Cups have been decided by 12 points or less.

Ron Raymond’s 2009 Grey Cup Prediction:

Montreal 35 Saskatchewan 18

 

Here’s a GREY CUP pointspread and result history of the last 13 Grey Cups played.

Year	Location	Line	ATS	SU	O/U	Final Score
2008	Montreal	MTL -2 CAL 58.0	CAL	CAL	U	CAL 22-14
2007	Toronto	SSK -9 WPG 51	WPG	SSK	U	SSK 23-19
2006	Winnipeg	BC -8 MTL 54.5	BC	BC	U	BC 25-14
2005	BC	EDM PK MTL 57.0	EDM	EDM	O	EDM 38-35 (OT)
2004	OTT	BC -4 TOR 50.0	TOR	TOR	U	TOR 27-19
2003	SSK	MTL -3 EDM 55	EDM	EDM	O	EDM 34-22
2002	EDM	EDM -1.5 MTL 54.0	MTL	MTL	U	MTL 25-16
2001	MTL	WPG -6.5 CAL 53	CAL	CAL	U	CAL 27-19
2000	CAL	MTL -6.5 BC 58.0	BC	BC	U	BC 28-26
1999	BC	CAL -5.5 HAM 51.0	HAM	HAM	O	HAM 32-21
1998	WPG	CAL -9 HAM 48.5	HAM	CAL	O	CAL 26-24
1997	EDM	SSK -3.5 TOR 48	TOR	TOR	O	TOR 47-23
1996	HAM	TOR -6.5 EDM 46.5	EDM	TOR	O	TOR 43-37