When I’m handicapping golf, I try to look for players who have a history of doing well at the course they are playing that week. It’s like a goalie in hockey, he could have lost his last 5 starts, but as soon as he plays that one team he owns, he breaks his streak.
Same thing in baseball, let’s say Detroit Tigers Pitcher Justin Verlander has lost his last 7 starts, but he’s up against the Baltimore Orioles in his next game, well, odds are pretty good he’s going to get the win, because he’s 8-1 SU lifetime vs. the Orioles.
Verlander’s Record vs. Baltimore Orioles
No Date D/N Home HS HST Road RS RST Line Total HS RS SUwinner O/U
- 1 09-24-2011 N DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R BALTIMORE GUTHRIE JEREMY R -255.0 7.5 5 6 BALTIMORE O
- 2 04-06-2011 N BALTIMORE B BERGESEN R DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R 131.0 8.5 3 7 DETROIT O
- 3 09-12-2010 D DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R BALTIMORE C TILLMAN R -225.0 8.5 6 2 DETROIT U
- 4 08-03-2009 N DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R BALTIMORE C TILLMAN R -265.0 8.0 6 5 DETROIT O
- 5 05-30-2009 N BALTIMORE GUTHRIE JEREMY R DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R 110.0 8.5 3 6 DETROIT O
- 6 08-16-2008 N DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R BALTIMORE D SARFATE R -210.0 10.5 5 3 DETROIT U
- 7 07-20-2008 D BALTIMORE BURRES BRIAN L DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R 130.0 10.0 1 5 DETROIT U
- 8 04-11-2007 N BALTIMORE LOEWEN ADAM L DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R 106.0 9.0 1 4 DETROIT U
- 9 05-10-2006 N BALTIMORE LOPEZ RODRIGO R DETROIT VERLANDER JUSTIN R 110.0 9.5 3 6 DETROIT U
Stats courtesy of www.ATSDatabase.com
Therefore, using a bit of that strategy in your golf handicapping, how would you bet on this weekends US Masters Winner?
Let’s look at the heavy Favorites to win the 2012 US Masters; Tiger Woods +515 and Rory McIlroy +550. Tiger played very well in his last appearance and won the 2012 MasterCard bay hill Arnold Palmer Invitational. However, I think the mainstream media stress and questions about Hank Haney’s new book will take a toll on Tiger and it might throw him off his game. Rory has shown to be inconsistent on the main stage, but will be in the top 5 come Sunday. Therefore, I’m going to go with lefty Phil Mickelson to win this weekend in Augusta, Georgia. Phil has won this event three times since 2004 and I like the fact he will be flying under the radar this week because most of the attention will be given to Tiger and Rory.
Here are my top 3 picks to win the 2012 US Masters.
- Gold Pick: Phil Mickelson +1015
- Silver Pick: Steve Stricker +4550
- Bronze Pick: Angel Cabrera +8550

Odds to win 2012 US Masters
When: April 5 - 8, 2012 –
- Tiger Woods +515
- Rory McIlroy +550
- Phil Mickelson +1015
- Lee Westwood +1815
- Luke Donald +1615
- Justin Rose +3050
- Hunter Mahan +2550
- Adam Scott +2850
- Keegan Bradley +3250
- Jason Day +4050
- Charl Schwartzel +4050
- Sergio Garcia +5050
- Bubba Watson +3550
- Steve Stricker +4550
- Dustin Johnson +5250
- Nick Watney +5050
- Martin Kaymer +6050
- Webb Simpson +4050
- Matt Kuchar +5250
- Graeme McDowell +5250
- KJ Choi +6050
- Louis Oosthuizen +8550
- Padraig Harrington +10550
- Kyle Stanley +9550
- Angel Cabrera +8550
- Brandt Snedeker +8050
- Rickie Fowler +9050
- Bo Van Pelt +6050
- Zach Johnson +9050
- Bill Haas +9050
- Ian Poulter +8550
- Geoff Ogilvy +8550
- Jim Furyk +10550
- Trevor Immelman +10550
- Aaron Baddeley +10550
- Paul Casey +12550
- Alvaros Quiros +12550
Past Masters Winners
Year – Winner – Country – To Par – Prize Money
- 2011 Charl Schwartzel South Africa -14 $1,440,000
- 2010 Phil Mickelson (3 time winner) United States -16 $1,350,000
- 2009 Ángel Cabrera Argentina -12 $1,350,000
- 2008 Trevor Immelman South Africa -8 $1,350,000
- 2007 Zach Johnson United States +1 $1,305,000
- 2006 Phil Mickelson United States -7 $1,260,000
- 2005 Tiger Woods (4 time winner) United States -12 $1,260,000
- 2004 Phil Mickelson United States -9 $1,117,000
- 2003 Mike Weir Canada -7 $1,080,000
- 2002 Tiger Woods United States -12 $1,008,000
- 2001 Tiger Woods United States -16 $1,008,000
- 2000 Vijay Singh Fiji -10 $828,000
- 1999 José María Olazábal (2) Spain -8 $720,000
- 1998 Mark O'Meara United States -9 $576,000
- 1997 Tiger Woods United States -18 $486,000
- 1996 Nick Faldo (3 time winner) England -12 $450,000