Ron Raymond's Sports Betting Blog

Today’s Baseball Pick
Minnesota PK -125 over Milwaukee

Keys to selection: When MINNESOTA played as a home team - During Last 5 Years - With SU Record of 7 Win 0 Lost in L7G; The Twins are 9-1 SU in this role L5Y.

Baseball Streakers

Who’s Hot: Minnesota 9 SU Wins, Kansas City 5 SU Wins, Tampa Bay 3 SU Wins.

Who’s Not: San Diego 5 SU Losses, Florida 4 SU Losses, Colorado 4 SU Losses.

O/U Streaks: Baltimore 4 Over, Pittsburgh 4 Over, Washington 3 Over, Chicago Cubs 3 Over, Philadelphia 6 Under, Chicago White Sox 4 Under, Cleveland 4 Under, Los Angeles Dodgers 4 Under, Oakland 3 Under, Atlanta 3 Under , Milwaukee 3 Under , San Francisco 3 Under.
Today’s Stats and Trends

Arizona vs. Florida: When FLORIDA team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - During the month of June - 1st game of a series; The Marlins are 8-2 SU in this spot.

Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Playing on Friday - Coming off a series loss - Coming off a 1 game loss; The Cubs are 1-9 SU in this role.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland: When CINCINNATI team played as a road team - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During the 2008 season; The OVER is 12-5-0 for the Reds in this spot.

Colorado vs. Detroit: When COLORADO team Played as road team as a Underdog - During the month of June - Playing on Friday; The Rockies are 5-15 SU in this situation.

Atlanta vs. Toronto: When ATLANTA team played as a Road team - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 1 game win - Coming off a series win; The OVER is 11-3-0 for the Braves in this spot since ‘97.

Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh: When PITTSBURGH team Played as home team as a Underdog - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During the month of June; The Pirates are 3-13 SU in this situation since ’01.

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: When NY YANKEES team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Total is 9.5; The Yankees are 3-7 SU in this situation.

Baltimore vs. Washington: When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team - Before a non division game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a night game - Coming off a 3 game over; The OVER is 12-4-1 for the Nats in this spot.

Boston vs. Houston: When BOSTON team Played as road team as a Favorite - Total is 9.5 - Playing on Friday; The Red Sox are 12-5 SU in this situation.

Philadelphia vs. Texas: When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Coming off a day game - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series; The Phillies are 2-11 SU in this position.

St.Louis vs. Kansas City: When ST LOUIS team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - During a night game - Coming off a 1 run lost - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series; The OVER is 9-2-0 for the Cardinals in this role.

Milwaukee vs. Minnesota: When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off 1 under - Coming off a 1 run win; The Twins are 9-2 SU in this position the L5Y.

San Francisco vs. Oakland: When OAKLAND team played as a Home team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a day game; The A’s are 10-0 SU in this situation since ’97.

Seattle vs. San Diego: When SAN DIEGO team Played as home team as a Favorite - During a night game - Vs AL WEST opponent; The Padres are 4-12 SU in this role as a home favorite.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as road team as a Favorite - Playing on Friday - With 1 day off; The Angels are 8-2 SU in this situation.

Today’s Baseball Pick
Tampa Bay PK -130 (Garza over Hendrickson)

Keys to selection: When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite - Vs Non Conference Opponent - 3rd game of a series - Coming off vs. National League opponent - Coming off a Road win - Coming off a Road win as a Favorite; The Road Favorite is 17-2 SU in this spot since 1997.

Baseball Streakers

Who’s Hot: Minnesota 8 SU Wins, Kansas City 5 SU Wins

Who’s Not: Colorado 4 SU Losses, San Diego 4 SU Losses, Cleveland 3 SU Losses, Florida 3 SU Losses

O/U Streaks: Washington 3 Over, Baltimore 3 Over, Pittsburgh 4 Over, Toronto 4 Over, Philadelphia 5 Under, Houston 5 Under, Chicago White Sox 3 Under, Cleveland 3 Under, Atlanta 3 Under, Milwaukee 3 Under, Los Angeles Dodgers 3 Under,

Today’s Stats and Trends

Tampa Bay vs. Florida: When FLORIDA team played as a Home team - Last 3 years - During a day game - Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog - Coming off a Home loss; The Marlins are 4-14 SU in this spot L3Y.

St.Louis vs. Detroit: When ST LOUIS team played as a road team - Total is 9.5 - Playing on Thursday; The UNDER is 15-3-0 for the Cardinals.

Baltimore vs. Chicago Cubs: When BALTIMORE team Played as road team as a Underdog - During a day game - During the 2008 season; The Orioles are 3-11 SU in this spot this year.

Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: When LOS ANGELES team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Vs. Left handed pitchers; The OVER is 8-2-0 for the Dodgers in this role.

Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: When SAN DIEGO team Played as home team as a Favorite - During the 2008 season - Vs. Right handed pitchers; The UNDER is 17-4-0 for the Padres in this spot.

Philadelphia vs. Oakland: When PHILADELPHIA team played as a road team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Vs AL WEST opponent; The UNDER is 11-0-0 for the Phillies in this spot since ’03.

San Francisco vs. Cleveland: When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team - During a night game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on Thursday - Coming off a 3 run lost - Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game - Scored 1 or more runs FOR in their last game; The Home Team (Cleveland) is 13-3 SU in this spot.

New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh: When NY YANKEES team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs. Left handed pitchers - After a non division game - Coming off a 2 game over - Coming off a night game; The UNDER is 8-2-0 for the Yankees in this role.

Cincinnati vs. Toronto: When CINCINNATI team played as a Road team - During the month of June - After a non division game - Allowed 5 runs AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a night game; The UNDER is 7-3-1 for the Reds in this role.

Texas vs. Houston: When HOUSTON team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - Vs AL Conference - During the month of June; The UNDER is 9-2-0 for the Astros in this situation.

Here are today's MLB ATS stats trends matchups for Sunday, June 22, 2008

When HOUSTON team played as a Road team - Vs AL Conference - Before a non division game - Allowed 4 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent
SU Record: 3-7
O/U/P Record: 2-8-0

When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite - 3rd game of a series - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series - Coming off a 2 game losing streak
SU Record: 8-2-
O/U/P Record: 4-6-0

When CLEVELAND team Played as Road team as a Underdog - After a non division game - Coming off vs. National League opponent - Coming off a Road win - Coming off a Road win as a Favorite
SU Record: 5-8
O/U/P Record: 2-11-0

When FLORIDA team played as a road team - During the month of June - During the 2008 season
SU Record: 5-8
O/U/P Record: 10-2-1

When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a home team - During the 2008 season - During a night game
SU Record: 11-2
O/U/P Record: 8-5-0

When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as home team as a Favorite - During the 2008 season - During a night game
SU Record: 11-1
O/U/P Record: 7-5-0

When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a home team - During the 2008 season - 3rd game of a series
SU Record: 9-2
O/U/P Record: 4-6-1

When LOS ANGELES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite - Total is 8.5 - During a day game
SU Record: 8-2
O/U/P Record: 7-3-0

When OAKLAND team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite - Playing on Sunday - Vs Non Division Opponent
SU Record: 14-1
O/U/P Record: 5-10-0

When OAKLAND team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite - After a non division game - Playing on Sunday
14-1
O/U/P Record: 5-10-0

DETROIT When ANY MLB Team played as a 100 to -120 Road Favorite - Coming off vs. National League opponent - During the month of June - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent
SU Record: 8-9
O/U/P Record: 14-2-1

PHILADELPHIA When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite - Last 4 years - Playing on Sunday - Scored 2 or more runs FOR in their last game - Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher
SU Record: 48-12
O/U/P Record: 25-33-2

Here are today's ATS Baseball stats and trends for Wednesday, May 14, 2008

When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Coming off vs. National League opponent - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game - Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 3-6-1

When NY METS team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During the month of May - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a Home win.
SU Record: 6-8-0
O/U/P Record: 12-2-0

When FLORIDA team played as a Road team - Coming off vs. National League opponent - During a night game - Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent - Coming off a 2 run lost.
SU Record: 7-9-0
O/U/P Record: 14-2-0

When SEATTLE team Played as road team as a Underdog - Playing on Wednesday - During the month of May.
SU Record: 4-12-0
O/U/P Record: 12-3-1

When PITTSBURGH team played as a road team - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - During the 2008 season.
SU Record: 5-6-0
O/U/P Record: 10-1-0

When LOS ANGELES team played as a road team - During a night game - During the 2008 season.
SU Record: 6-5-0
O/U/P Record: 8-2-1

When FLORIDA team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Playing on Wednesday.
SU Record: 7-5-0
O/U/P Record: 9-2-1

When PHILADELPHIA team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - Last 5 years - During the month of May.
SU Record: 8-3-0
O/U/P Record: 9-2-0

When ATLANTA team played as a road team - Vs. Right handed pitchers - During the 2008 season.
SU Record: 3-9-0
O/U/P Record: 1-10-1

BALTIMORE: When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team - During the 2008 season - Vs AL EAST opponent - Allowed 4 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a 1 game win.
SU Record: 5-10-0
O/U/P Record: 3-12-0

BOSTON: When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team - After a division game - Last 4 years - During a day game - Coming off a 3 game losing streak - Coming off a 1 run lost - Coming off a Road loss as a Favorite.
SU Record: 7-10-0
O/U/P Record: 14-3-0

BOSTON: When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Playing on Wednesday - Vs Conference Opponent - Coming off a night game - Coming off a 3 game losing streak.
SU Record: 13-3-0
O/U/P Record: 8-7-1

TEXAS: When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team - During a day game - 3rd game of a series - Before a non conference game - Coming off 1 under - Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game.
SU Record: 13-3-0
O/U/P Record: 8-8-0

Here are today's ATS Baseball Stats for Tuesday, May 13, 2008

When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a series win - Allowed 3 runs AGAINST in their last game.
SU Record: 12-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-10-0

When OAKLAND team played as a Road team - Playing on Tuesday - Vs AL CENTRAL opponent - Coming off a day game - Coming off a 1 game win.
SU Record: 9-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-6-1

When CHI WHITE SOX team played as a 100 to 120 Road Underdog - During a night game - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Coming off a night game - Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent.
SU Record: 4-6-0
O/U/P Record: 2-8-0

When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite - After a non division game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a series win - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent.
SU Record: 18-3-0
O/U/P Record: 11-10-0

When TAMPA BAY team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog - Before a division game - During a night game - Coming off a Home win as a Underdog - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-6-0

When CLEVELAND team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - After a conference game - Playing on Tuesday.
SU Record: 13-3-0
O/U/P Record: 10-6-0

When BOSTON team Played as road team as a Favorite - Total is 8.5 - Playing on Tuesday.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 4-6-0

When BOSTON team played as a -160 to -180 road Favorite - During the month of May - Vs Division Opponent.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 6-4-0

When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog - During a night game - During the 2008 season.
SU Record: 7-4-0
O/U/P Record: 2-9-0

When ARIZONA team Played as home team as a Favorite - During the 2008 season - Vs Division Opponent.
SU Record: 8-2-0
O/U/P Record: 7-2-1

When ARIZONA team played as a home team - During the 2008 season - Vs NL WEST opponent.
SU Record: 9-2-0
O/U/P Record: 8-2-1

When ARIZONA team Played as home team as a Favorite - Playing on Tuesday - During the month of May.
SU Record: 12-3-0
O/U/P Record: 4-8-3

When ATLANTA team played as a road team - During a night game - During the 2008 season.
SU Record: 3-9-0
O/U/P Record: 2-10-0

CLEVELAND: When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite - Last 2 years - After a conference game - Before a non division game - Coming off a 1 game loss - Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent.
SU Record: 13-3-0
O/U/P Record: 6-9-1

ARIZONA: When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team - During the 2008 season - During a night game - Playing on Tuesday - Coming off a day game - Coming off a series loss. SU Record: 14-2-0
O/U/P Record: 7-9-0

PHILADELPHIA: When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During the 2008 season - Playing on Tuesday - 1st game of a series - Coming off a day game - Coming off a series loss.
SU Record: 13-2-0
O/U/P Record: 5-10-0

I’m often asked from new sports bettors, “what’s the difference between a team trend and a system trend?”

A “Team Trend” is when “one” particular team has been involved in certain situational outcomes from past games. A “System Trend” is when “more then one” team has been involved in various situational outcomes.

Now if you’re wondering, which one brings more value to the bettors, well that’s the 64 dollar question boggling bettors the last 20 years and it’s in the eye of the beholder. Here’s the thing, every trend and system trends brings different elements to the situation. If you recalled in my last article this week, I mentioned how “myths” play a big role in the numbers and how gamblers and handicappers like to put allot of stock in such situations like how teams do “vs. left handed pitchers” or this is a popular go against trends, and it’s “to play against a home team from the West Coast coming off a long road trip."

Here’s what my researched as proven on this last trend. Instead of playing against home teams coming off a 10 games or more road trip, you should be “playing on” WEST COAST teams coming off a long road trip, as every WEST COAST teams have a .500 or better record in their first home game after an extended road trip of 10 games ore more.

WEST COAST TEAMS RECORDS
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• San Francisco 15-7 SU and 10 overs 11 unders 1 push
• L.A. Angels 8-7 SU and 8 overs 6 unders 0 pushes
• Arizona 8-8 SU and 10 overs 6 unders 0 pushes
• L.A. Dodgers 9-7 SU and 6 overs 9 unders 1 push
• Oakland 12-8 SU and 13 overs 7 unders and 0 pushes
• San Diego 14-12 SU and 13 overs 12 unders 1 push
• Seattle 15-11 SU and 13 overs 12 unders 1 push

These are team trends, now when I ask the database to give me the result of when “any team is at home and they are coming off a 10 game or more road trip”, the SYSTEM TREND says the home teams are 262 wins, 239 loses and the OVER/UNDER favors the OVER at 262-239-22.

There you have it, there’s value in doing your research and no matter what people think about baseball stats and trends, either Team Trends or System Trends; the numbers don’t lie!

Here’s some Baseball Team and System Trends for Friday, April 18th 2008.

When PHILADELPHIA played as a Favorite - During Last 2 Years - Won Last Game by 8 Runs or More; The Phillies are 11-0 SU in this spot the last 2 years.

When MILWAUKEE Played as road team as a Favorite - During Last 5 Years - Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less; the UNDER is 6-1-0 for the Brewers in this spot.

When DETROIT played as a road team - During Last 4 Years - Lost Last Game by 10 Runs or More; the Tigers are 0-6 SU in their next game L4Y.

When CLEVELAND team played as a Road team - Playing on Friday - 1st game of a series - Coming off a Home win - Coming off a 1 game win; the UNDER is 9-2-0 for the Indians in this role.

When ANY MLB Team played as a -100 to -120 Home Favorite - 1st game of a series - After a conference game - Vs NL EAST opponent - Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent - Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a 1 game win; the OVER is 12-4-0 for the Home Fave in this spot. (Mets vs. Phillies game)

When WASHINGTON team played as Road team as an Underdog - Playing on Friday - Before a conference game - Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog; the OVER is 6-4-0 for the Nationals/Expos in this situation since ’97.

When TORONTO team played as a Home team - 1st game of a series - Playing on Friday - Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent - Coming off a Home loss; the Toronto Blue Jays are 8-2 SU in this spot since ’97.

When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - During the month of April - Coming off a 2 game losing streak - Coming off a night game; the Home Team is 35-17 SU in this role. (Detroit vs. Toronto game)

Ever since I’ve started handicapping baseball, one of the greatest myths I’ve encountered was the “team facing the lefty.” To be honest, there’s some juggling to do for the managers, as some batters cannot hit left handed pitching.

Here are some notable big name players who can’t hit left handed pitchers so far this season.

(Teams - At Bats - Batting Avg.)
------------------------------------
Florida Uggla 18 0.056
Cleveland Michaels 16 0.063
Cleveland Blake 12 0.083
CWS Uribe 10 0.1
Oakland Buck 20 0.1
Angels Anderson 9 0.111
NYY Cano 9 0.111
Cleveland Gutierrez 17 0.118
Cleveland Cabrera 15 0.133
Cleveland Perralta 15 0.133
Atlanta Teixeira 22 0.136
Oakland Barton 22 0.136
Kansas City Gordon 14 0.143
Toronto Thomas 7 0.143
NYM Reyes 13 0.154
Oakland Hannahan 13 0.154
Phillies Laroche 13 0.154
Florida Jacobs 19 0.158
Boston Manny 6 0.167
Boston big Papi 6 0.167
Detroit Cabrera 6 0.167
Oakland Cust 9 0.167
Oakland Ellis 24 0.167
Phillies Bay 12 0.167
Reds Freel 11 0.182
Dodgers Martin 11 0.182
Seattle Ichiro 11 0.182
Seattle Ibanez 11 0.182
Tampa Bay Gomes 11 0.182
Texas Byrd 11 0.182

As you can see, some of the top hitters in baseball have a heck of a time vs. left handed pitching and if you’re the Oakland A’s or the Cleveland Indians, you need to start looking for more right handed batters.

However, here’s the funny thing, the Oakland A’s are 4-3 SU vs. Left handed pitchers this season, but you might want to consider betting on the UNDER, as it’s 6-1-0 on the season when they face the southpaws.

Although it’s only the start of the 3rd week, here’s an early indication on how some teams do vs. left handed pitchers. One thing that jumps out, the Angels and Yankees have been lucky to avoid the southpaws, as they’ve only faced 1 left handed pitcher in the first two weeks of the season. The Milwaukee Brewers are perfect vs. the Randy Johnsons of the world, as they are 5-0 SU vs. lefties and the Diamondbacks and Cards are 5-1 SU. The UNDER is perfect for these teams; Houston (0-4-0), Kansas City (0-4-0) and Texas (0-3-0). Teams who’ve been able to tag the southpaws for runs are Milwaukee (4-1-0) and Pittsburgh (4-1-0).

In general, Road Teams who face left handed pitching this season are 30-22 SU and the OVER/UNDER is 25-27-0. Plus, Road Dogs are 23-17 SU and the UNDER is 22-18-0 in the exact same spot.

Furthermore, using some different angles on where to get a betting edge; when road teams vs. left handed pitchers who are coming off game that started a left handed pitcher, are 11-3 SU this season. Therefore, once a team has seen some left handed pitching, they tend to get better in the second game, so far! Which means, the Oakland A’s (Eveland) would be a nice Baseball Underdog for this evening vs. the White Sox (Danks).

Baseball Tip for Tonight: When ANY MLB Team played as a +100 to +120 Road Underdog - After a conference game - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Coming off a 1 run win - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; the Road Dog is 11-6 SU in this role since 1997. Play on the Oakland A’s +100.