Ron Raymond’s Grey Cup Pick

Ron’s Pick: Winnipeg +7.0 vs. BC Lions (2* GREY CUP PICK)
Ron’s Pick: UNDER 50.5 (5* BEST BET)

Keys to selection: History has proven the best formula on winning a Grey Cup championship in football is when a team can play great defense and run the football. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers defense have been the most consistent in the league this season, but I wonder if RB Chris Garrett is the type of player who can have two great running games in a row?

The BC Lions have been the best second half team in the league and playing at home against one of the top defenses in the league, could add some pressure on their offense after a huge 17 point win over Edmonton last Sunday! Therefore, if the Bombers defense can stay consistent as they’ve been all season and find a way to shut down the Lions offense in the first half or minimize them to less than 10 points before half time, this could play well for the Blue Bombers getting +7.0 points. Let’s face it, the Bombers are playing in the Grey Cup because they have a very aggressive and stingy defense, offensively, they’ve only scored 30 points or more 4 times in 19 games this season, so don’t expect the Winnipeg’s offense to put up big numbers against a Lions defense who have kept their opponents offense to 14 points against in their last 3 games.

In my opinion, this 99th Grey Cup will be decided by field positioning and normally in close football games, they seem to come down to field goals and the nod should go to Lions place kicker Paul McCallum who has been Mr. Automatic this season. However, the Sportsbooks have put too many points on the board and they are anticipating the public to be betting on the home team, that’s why we are seeing the Lions as a Touchdown spread.

Grey Cup Side Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog -During the month of November -Vs Non Division Opponent -After a conference game - Coming off a game scored 17 points or more; The Road Team is 11-5-1 ATS since 1996.

Grey Cup Over/Under Stat of the Game When WINNIPEG Played as road team as a Underdog - During Last 3 Years - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; the UNDER is 18-2-0 for the Bombers in this role the last 3 seasons.

Ron’s Forecast

• BC Lions 24 Winnipeg Blue Bombers 19

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Canada's #1 CFL Handicapper Ron Raymond delivered a winning and profitable night for his clients, as Ron gave out the UNDER in the Argos vs. Blue Bombers game and the OVER in the Stampeders vs. Lions game. Plus, Ron was 2-0 on his final score predictions and he’s got 2 more winners going today at www.phoenixsports.com

Ron Raymond’s CFL Week 2 Picks

Date: Saturday, July 09, 2011
Toronto (48.0) vs. Winnipeg (-2.0)

Ron’s Analysis: The Argos and Blue Bombers have something in common on offense; they rely on their running game to establish the passing game. Toronto won a 23-21 nail bitter last week in a defensive battle with Calgary in their opener, while Winnipeg made the right adjustments at half time and shut out the Tiger cats in the second half to win 24-16. Toronto had many key injuries in their game vs. Calgary and that could affect their game plan this week vs. the Bombers; while Winnipeg will be primed to showcase their talent in front of their fans in their home opener. Look for the Bombers to establish field position, because the key to this battle will be to make the other team generate long drives to score points and let their defense win the battle of the trenches to stop the running game and force the other team to throw. Argonauts quarterback Cleo Lemon threw for 187 yards vs. Calgary, while Blue Bombers QB Buck Pierce had 151 yards in the air vs. the Hamilton defense. As much as I would like to bet on the Bombers at -2.0, I like both defenses too much to go 2 and out on many series. Therefore, I look for this game to go UNDER the posted total.

ATS Trends: When TORONTO team played as Road team as a Underdog -Total is between 46.5 to 49 - After a non division game; the UNDER is 13-4-0 for the Argos in this role since 1996.

When WINNIPEG team played as a Home team -Playing on Friday -Vs Toronto opponent; the UNDER is 9-2-0 for the Bombers in this spot.

Ron’s forecast: Winnipeg 24 Toronto 19
Ron’s Pick: UNDER 48.0 (2*)

Calgary (53.0) vs. B.C. Lions (-1.5)
Ron’s Analysis: In my view, this is the “Trap Game of the Week!” Plus, I have a rule of thumb when there’s a flip flop in early line movement. It goes like this, the Bookmakers opened up the Stamps as a -1.0 Road Favorite and the line has since flipped to the Lions at -1.5. In my 15 years of handicapping, the Bookmaker is rarely wrong when they post a line and to see the line flip flop, tells me the early money forced them to flip the line to get balanced action. The Stamps have done very well against the spread in Vancouver in their last 10 trips, covering 70% of the games and own a 5-2 SU and 6-1-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Lions played a tough road game vs. Montreal last Thursday, but didn’t establish a running game and this could hurt them in many games down the road. Calgary needs to address their field goal kicking, as it cost them a victory in their home opener vs. Toronto. In conclusion, we have two good QB’s in this game that lost last week, so expect a shootout this week! Play the OVER.

ATS Trends: When ANY CFL Team played as a Road team -After a non conference game -Total is between 51.5 to 54 - Coming off a game scored 21 points or less - Coming off a 1 game under; the OVER is 14-3-0 for the Road Team (Calgary) in this spot.

When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -Vs Calgary opponent -During Week 1 to 4 - Coming off a game scored 27 points or less; the OVER is 10-5-0 for the home team (BC Lions) in this situation.

Ron’s forecast: Calgary 32 BC Lions 26
Ron’s Pick: OVER 53.0 (2*)

Get today's picks at www.phoenixsports.com