NFL COMPUTER DATABASE PICKS WEEK 3

The name of the game is numbers and the worst feeling in the sports betting world is getting what is called “hooked”.

What does getting “Hooked” mean Ron?

Getting hooked means losing or winning by 0.5 points on a side or a total of the point spread numbers released by the offshore sportsbooks like Bookmaker.com.

Example: Let’s say the NY Giants are favored by -6.5 points over the Redskins the final score of the game is NY Giants 20 Washington Redskins 14; this means if you picked NY Giants -6.5, you my friend got “hooked”.

Now, using the “hook” theory, I went through each NFL Week 3 Football Games and I’ve taken the spread of each game, (sides and totals) and went -0.5 to one side and +0.5 to the other side on both the side and total and I’ve produced the following records for each game.

For instance, in the first game, the Jets are favored by -3.0 and the O/U is set at 37.0; I went into my NFL database to search for any spread from 1983 to present, Home Favorites with a spread of -2.5 to -3.5 and the over/under of 36.5 to 37.5 and give me the ATS, SU and O/U results of each of those games.

Here’s what I found. (Favorites only).

• ATS = AGAINST THE SPREAD
• SU = STRAIGHT UP
• O/U = OVER/UNDER

NYJ -3 = 78-79-9 (ATS) 98-68 (SU) 77-88-1 (O/U) Edge = Jets (SU)

Houston -3.5 = 42-18 (ATS) 29-24-7 (SU) 27-30-3 (O/U) Edge = Texans (SU)

Eagles -9 = 21-24-0 (ATS) 36-14 (SU) 25-23-2 (O/U) Edge = Philly (SU)

Baltimore -13 = 4-8-0 (ATS) 6-6 (SU) 7-5-0 (O/U) Edge = None

NYG -6.5 = 14-18-3 (ATS) 24-11 (SU) 20-15-1 (O/U) Edge = Giants (SU)

Redskins -6.5 = 18-18-0 (ATS) 24-12 (SU) 20-15-1 (O/U) Edge = Redskins (SU)

Green Bay -6.5 = 10-4-1 (ATS) 16-9 (SU) 17-8-0 (O/U) Edge = OVER

Vikings -7 = 37-44-5 (ATS) 54-28 (SU) 37-49-0 (O/U) Edge = Vikes (SU)

Patriots -4 = 15-26-0 (ATS) 25-16 (SU) 15-25-0 (O/U) Edge = UNDER

Chicago -1 = 15-20-2 (ATS) 15-22 (SU) 19-18-0 (O/U) Edge = Seahawks (ATS)

Saints -6 = 1-2-0 (ATS) 3-0 (SU) 2-1-0 (O/U) Edge = Saints (SU)

San Diego -6 = 30-36-1 (ATS) 44-23 (SU) 27-40-0 (O/U) Edge = UNDER

Steelers -4 = 23-19-1 (ATS) 26-17 (SU) 22-19-2 (O/U) Edge = Steelers (SU)

Denver -1 = 15-16-1 (ATS) 15-17 (SU) 20-12-0 (O/U) Edge = OVER

Cardinals -3 = 16-12-4 (ATS) 19-13 (SU) 15-16-1 (O/U) Edge = Cardinals (SU)

Dallas -9 = 5-8-0 (ATS) 9-3-1 (SU) 5-8-0 (O/U) Edge = Cowboys (SU)

*Ron’s View: Going into the third week of the “hook” article, I’m noticing the total plays a huge role in where the edge is given. As you can see from this weeks result, not too many edges for the point spread, but every game can’t have a pearl in the oyster.

NFL COMPUTER DATABASE PREDICTIONS WEEK 2

The name of the game is numbers and the worst feeling in the sports betting world is getting what is called “hooked”.

What does getting “Hooked” mean Ron?

Getting hooked means losing or winning by 0.5 points on a side or a total of the point spread numbers released by the offshore sportsbooks like Bookmaker.com.

Example: Let’s say the NY Giants are favored by -6.5 points over the Redskins like they are this weekend, and the final score of the game is NY Giants 20 Washington Redskins 14; this means if you picked NY Giants -6.5, you my friend got “hooked”.

Now, using the “hook” theory, I went through each NFL Week 1 Football Game and I’ve taken the spread of each game, (sides and totals) and went -0.5 to one side and +0.5 to the other side on both the sides and total and I’ve produced the following records for each game.

For instance, in the first game, the Falcons are favored by -4.0 and the O/U is set at 43.0; I went into my NFL database to search for any spread from 1983 to present, Home Favorites with a spread of -3.5 to -4.5 and the over/under of 42.5 to 43.5 and give me the ATS, SU and O/U results of each of those games.

Here’s what I found. (I’m going to show the FAVORITES record only and give you the edge.

ATS = AGAINST THE SPREAD
SU = STRAIGHT UP
O/U = OVER/UNDER

• KC -3 = 64-54-6 (ATS) 77-47 (SU) 65-58-1 (O/U/) Edge = Chiefs (SU)
• Tennessee -6.5 = 44-43-6 (ATS) 64-29 (SU) 48-43-2 (O/U) Edge = Titans (SU)
• New England -4 = 11-8-0 (ATS) 11-8 (SU) 8-11-0 (O/U) Edge = None
• Green Bay -9 = 16-27-0 (ATS) 30-13 (SU) 23-20-0 (O/U) Edge = GB (SU)
• Vikings -10 = 1-3-1 (ATS) 4-1 (SU) 1-4-0 (O/U) Edge = UNDER
• Atlanta -6 = 29-34-1 (ATS) 40-24 (SU) 30-32-2 (O/U) = Falcons (SU)
• Redskins -10 = 27-25-1 (ATS) 43-10 (SU) 30-23-0 (O/U) Edge = Redskins (SU)
• Jacksonville -3 = 58-55-6 (ATS) 68-51 (SU) 58-59-2 (O/U) Edge = None
• San Francisco -1 = 19-14-2 (ATS) 20-15 (SU) 15-19-1 (O/U) Edge = None
• Bills -5 = 23-22-2 (ATS) 27-19-1 (SU) 24-23-0 (O/U) Edge = None
• Denver -3 = 83-81-9 (ATS) 99-74 (SU) 80-90-3 (O/U) Edge = None
• Baltimore -3.5 = 82-66-15 (ATS) 109-53-1 (SU) 77-79-7 (O/U) Edge = Ravens (SU)
• Steelers -3 = 61-45-20 (ATS) 80-49 (SU) 57-70-2 (O/U) Edge = Steelers (ATS)
• Cowboys -3 = 55-49-14 (ATS) 74-44 (SU) 52-63-3 (O/U) Edge = Dallas (SU)
• Eagles -1.5 = 10-9-3 (ATS) 12-10 (SU) 11-10-1 (O/U) Edge = None
• Colts -3 = 34-28-5 (ATS) 40-26-1 (SU) 37-29-1 (O/U) Edge = Colts (ATS)

*Note: As you can see, the numbers are pretty tight this week, so thread lightly.