Ron Raymond's Sports Betting Blog

Link: http://www.phoenixsports.com

In the good ole days, the bookmakers had the advantage over the players; there were no computers and they had additional access to point spread statistics over the regular players. In fact, most bookmakers in those days subscribed to football newsletters that catered to the point spread crowd and the average “Joe and Jane” had no clue these types of newsletters existed. However, the times have changed, NFL bettors can now go to “Google” type in “ATS STATS” and find hundreds of sports betting statistics sites that can help them get the edge over their bookmaker or improve their rankings in their NFL Football pools.

Now, don’t let the title of this article make you believe there are only 10 top NFL Handicapping stats and angles that exist to help you win on a consistent basis. Evolution is a funny cat, it forces everybody and everything to get better and it could be a vicious cycle that has its good points and it’s bad ones. The sports betting evolution is a numbers game and if you only use “old school” habits to beat the NFL or any other sports, you will be the bookmakers best friends; as you will be putting his kids through college and contributing to his new west wing in the buuuurrbbs!

Here’s the beautiful thing about sports betting, it’s like golf in many ways, it’s always a challenge to be consistent and it’ll play with your emotions on a daily basis. Some days you will be King of the World and other days you will just wish you had stayed in bed; as it could slam you hard!

The secret to my betting success is simple and I preach these words to anybody who will listen; believe in the “Law of Average” and use the “Less is more” concept. In fact, you can use these two theories in anything you do in life and watch how your life will change.

Now that I’m finished playing Doctor Frasier Crane, let’s see if we can make your NFL betting an enjoyable experience and improve your bankroll or contest status for the upcoming season.

Everybody has their own way of Handicapping sports; I believe sports handicapping must be broken down in 3 categories: Statistical, Situational and General knowledge/Gut Feeling!

Keep in mind, your not betting on this team vs. that team on Sunday, you’re betting on whether this team can beat that team by the pointspread. When you really think about it, the bookmaker has already told you who’s going to win the game, he’s telling you right off the bat, the Dallas Cowboys will win by 3 points over the Washington Redskins and the OVER/UNDER will land on 43.0 points! Tada! There, half the battle is over with! Now that you know the Cowboys are favored to win by 3 points and the O/U to land on 43 points, the question all sports bettors must now ask themselves is; Do I believe them or do I think I have the numbers to prove the linemaker’s wrong? How did the Bookmakers come up with minus 3 and the over under to land on 43 points?

This is where your statistical handicapping must come in and I’ve always told my clients to come up with their own power ratings or formula to come up with their own numbers. I use what is called an ATS Calculator and it leads me on the right path to where the numbers should be around.

As for your Situational handicapping, this is where I will share with you ten statistical angles to consider and look out for when handicapping football. If you’re asking yourself why doesn’t he name them his “top 10” handicapping stats and angles? If you teach everybody how to fish, nobody will buy fish at the market anymore!

1) Before Bye Week: The NFL season is a 17 week grueling grind on the body and having a week off to rest is what most NFL players look forward too, they use this week off to spend it wisely. Therefore, coaches normally give the players a bit of incentive to win the game before the bye week, so everybody feels good before they come back to practice the following week.

ATS Stat: When any NFL team is a +3.5 to +6.0 Road Underdogs before a bye week; the Road Dog is 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since 1983.

2) Before and After a Monday Night Game: Playing on Monday Night Football is like the Super Bowl to some organization and players, they seem to think it’s their night; it’s the “highlighted” Game of the Week and everybody is watching. Plus, it’s the night where the “Sharpie” made its debut after Terrell Owens as a Forty-Niner, pulled the Sharpie out of his sock and signed the football after scoring a touchdown!

ATS Stats: Speaking of the 49ers, they are 15-2 SU before a Monday Night football game.

3) Law of Average Handicapping: If the bookmakers didn’t put out a line on the games, the favorites would win between 70 to 80 percent of the games played. However, because there’s a number, you have to find the law of average and use it to your statistical advantage. One of my LOA tips is to “Play on a team coming off an ATS win vs. a team coming off an ATS lost.” As much as I would love to take credit for this angle, it belongs to my handicapping friend Ross Benjamin.

4) OVER/UNDER situations: Allot of sports betting is based on perception, especially when betting on what I call “LWS” (Last Week Syndrome). Bettors tend to recap a teams past game performance and double up on the same occurrence happening again the following week. If there’s one thing I’ve learned betting on Pro Football, never base your decision on last week’s performance, good or bad. Normally when a team gets blown out by 21 points or more and they are playing a team who just won by 14 points or more, play the UNDER in the next game between these two teams.

5) 30/90 Situation: Many pro gamblers play this angle on college football; When you have a team that has scored less than 30 points in their last 3 games and have given up more then 90 points in those games; play on this team in their fourth game against the spread. Again, this is based mostly on perception that this team will get blown out and normally they will have great line value.

6) Division Sandwich Games: Here’s a nice Pro football handicapping betting angle to consider called a “division sandwich”. Play against the team who is caught between two division games; as they are caught in a sports emotional roller coaster. Division games are very important in the Pro’s, as each team’s goal is to win the division and playing 2 division games in 3 weeks is very taxing on teams.

7) Dome Teams on Grass Surface: Everybody has a thought on dome teams playing on Grass surface, is it fact or myth? Here’s how current dome teams did SU playing on grass surface coming off a Dome game; don’t bet the farm on them SU!

• Atlanta: 18-66-1 (SU)
• Detroit: 24-80 (SU)
• Indianapolis: 44-52 (SU)
• Minnesota : 37-59 (SU)
• New Orleans : 36-59 (SU)
• St.Louis: 33-55 (SU)

8) Super Bowl Teams First 3 Weeks: Everybody loves to bet on the Champs, but not gamblers! With perception being a bookmaker’s best friend, the linemakers know they can get away with a point or two when they hang a number on the defending Super Bowl Champion the first 3 weeks of the season.

9) Look ahead Games: Another angle to consider is the “look-ahead game”, football and all sports for that matter involve high emotions, especially at the College football and basketball level. Therefore, you will want to keep an eye out on the schedule for when you have a successful team playing a squad that has won less than 30% of their games during the season, and they have a big game on deck. In this situation, play against the team who’s favored because you will get more line value on the underdog. The reason is simple, they are overlooking the team that is not a threat to them and they are looking ahead to the “emotional” game. This angle is “huge” at the College football and basketball level.

10) Letdown Games: Using the emotion angle again, consider playing against teams who are coming off a huge blowout win or a big “important” game, as it’s nearly impossible to match the same emotions and intensity of the previous game. This is called a “letdown spot”, as teams tend to let their guards down after a big win and the bookmakers tend to “over price” this team in the next game.

On a parting note, it’s important to keep your sports betting goals in perspective and realize you’re betting for entertainment and live another betting week, not to pay the rent!