NFL Underdogs and Favorites Week 1

• By Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond
• Date: September, 9th 2010

You know NFL Football is here when you’re none sporting friends start asking you who do you like this weekend and now they are adding at the end of that sentence; “yeah, but will they cover the spread!” Whoa! Slow down cowboy, who taught you the spread game?

A good friend of mine in the sports handicapping industry thought me years ago, nobody wants your picks the first two weeks of the season, but once they starting losing their “butts off” and go 3-13 with their picks, they will send you that email with the subject header that says, “Eh bud. So…(pause) who do you like this weekend?”

If you’re new to the sports betting scene, let me give you a few NFL betting tips on how you could win your NFL office pool at least once. Let’s start with the obvious, if everybody takes at least 65% to 75% of the favorites, what do you think the standings will look like? Remember, underdogs don’t bite and when they come in, you look like the genius that picked them! In fact, when you look at the weekly winners, it’s normally that person who took the “contrarian” way to the winners circle. Remember, if you take mostly favorites, you’re only shot at winning a weekly contest is picking a right over/under on that Monday Night game. Don’t you want to be breathing easy watching Monday Night Football without having to worry about the total score at the end of the game?

When everybody loves “that” game, go the other way! Try to find a consensus site that shows you who everybody is betting on that week and find those games where 75% or more of the people are betting on and go the other way. For example, at the consensus site I’m observing at this Sportsbook, they have 93% of their bettors wagering on the Miami Dolphins to cover the spread, that’s a red flag in my book and I would bet on the Bills +3.0 for Week 1.

Parity is now the name of the game and when I look at the Home Favorites and Home Underdogs for Week 1, we have it even at 8-8. I’ve done a bit of research going back the last 5 years to see how Home Favorites and Home Underdogs do in Week 1, here’s what I found:

NFL Home Favorites

• PK to -3.0 =7-4-0 ATS 7-4 SU 6-5-0 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 = 8-10-0 ATS 12-6 SU 4-14-0 O/U
• -7.0 or higher = 5-8-0 ATS 9-4 SU 5-7-1 O/U

NFL Home Underdogs

• PK to +3.0 = 6-6-0 ATS 5-7 SU 3-9-0 O/U
• +3.5 to +6.5= 3-7-0 ATS 2-8 SU 5-5-0 O/U
• +7.0 or Higher = 1-0-0 ATS 0-1 SU 1-0-0 O/U

As you can see, we have more UNDERS occurring in Week 1 and that’s normal, as most offenses throw out the pre season playbook and start with their normal playbook, as teams don’t want to show anything in preseason. The way I see it, more UNDERS means close games and that means more dogs to cover the spread!

Everything seems to be well balance for Home Favorites and Home Underdogs for NFL Week 1 and try not to follow conventional thinking or listening to national media guys on radio or TV who give out picks, because if everybody hears the same picks and everybody bets those “same picks”, do you think you will win your office pool?

Have guts and don’t be afraid to bet on the underdogs this weekend.

Here are the Week 1 NFL lines and results from the 2009 season.

• New England Patriots Buffalo Bills -13.00 47 (25-24)
• Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs -13.00 36.5 (38-24)
• Cincinnati Bengals Denver Broncos -4.50 41 (7-12)
• Pittsburgh Steelers Tennessee Titans -6.00 35.5 (13-10)
• Cleveland Browns Minnesota Vikings 4.00 39.5 (20-34)
• Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars -6.00 46 (14-12)
• Houston Texans New York Jets -4.50 45 (7-24)
• Oakland Raiders San Diego Chargers 10.00 42.5 (20-24)
• New York Giants Washington Redskins -6.50 37 (23-17)
• Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears -4.50 47 (21-15)
• Carolina Panthers Philadelphia Eagles 3.00 43.5 (10-38)
• New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions -14.00 49.5 (45-27)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas Cowboys 4.50 39.5 (21-34)
• Atlanta Falcons Miami Dolphins -4.00 44.5 (19-7)
• Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams -7.00 41 (28-0)
• Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers -5.00 46 (16-20)

*Note: If you’re interested in my NFL and College Football picks, you can get them for free each and every week at www.phoenixsports.com. Once you register for free, hit the “make picks” links at the top of the page and you will have access to my free NFL picks.

Good luck and enjoy Week 1.