ATS Database Game Day Previews

Boston vs. Columbus

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Ron's Comment: The Bruins have lost a bit of their zip they had at the beginning of the season and Mason has been outstanding at home. Furthermore, the Blue Jackets are 9-2 SU as a home underdog this season. When COLUMBUS team played as a home team - Last 5 years - Coming off 3 overs; the OVER is 7-3-0 for the Blue Jackets in this spot L5Y.


Prediction: Columbus 4 Boston 2

Calgary vs. New Jersey

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Ron's Comment: Both teams are coming embarrassing loses to non-playoff competing teams, but the Devils losing 7-3 to the Islanders will not sit well with Sutter. In fact, look for Brodeur to rebound in hall of fame fashion this evening. When NEW JERSEY team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Western conference opponent - Scored 3 goals FOR in their last game - Coming off vs. Atlantic division opponent; The Devils are 9-2 SU in this role since 1997.


Prediction: New Jersey 3 Calgary 0

Buffalo vs. Philadelphia

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Ron's Comment: The last 7 games between these two clubs in Philly has seen the over go a perfect 7-0 and with these 2 goalies this evening, I don't see why they can't make it 8-0-0! When PHILADELPHIA team played as Home team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Coming off vs. Central division opponent; the Flyers are 14-3-4 SU in this situation since 1997.


Prediction: Philadelphia 6 Buffalo 4

Florida vs. Pittsburgh

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Ron's Comment: Normally I would be giving the Pens the nod in this spot, but they are coming off a huge upset special win over the Caps on Sunday and the Panthers have the defense to shutdown the Penguins top guns. When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team - playing on Tuesday - During the month of March - Before a conference game - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite; the Road Team (FLORIDA) is 10-5-2 SU in this spot since '97.


Prediction: Florida 3 Pittsburgh 2

Phoenix vs. Detroit

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Ron's Comment: Detroit seems to play better with Conklin between the pipes and the Coyotes are still a young team who've been having finding the twain of late. When DETROIT team played as Home team as a Favorite - With 2 days off - Coming off a 1 game loss; the Red Wings are 16-3-3 SU in this situation.


Prediction: Detroit 5 Phoenix 1

NY Islanders vs. Toronto

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Ron's Comment: Bit of a Law of Average play here on the Leafs as they lost a close one in Ottawa last night. Plus, the Islanders are coming off a huge win over the Devils, so this is a classic letdown spot here for Gordon's boys. When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Last 4 years - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog - Playing in back to back games; the Home Fave (TORONTO) is 14-2 SU in this role the L4Y.


Prediction: Toronto 5 NY Islanders 2

Edmonton vs. Montreal

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Ron's Comment: Tough game to handicap, the Habs fired their coach yesterday, so there's some new energy in the room, but the Oilers are fighting for playoff ranking. Nevertheless, I'm siding with the Canadiens, as they are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home overall and 8-2 vs. Northwest division foes at the Bell Centre. When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Total is 5.5 - Last 4 years - With 1 day off - Coming off vs Pacific division opponent - Coming off a 2 goal win - Coming off a 1 game win; The Home Fave (MTL) is 11-4 SU in this situation the L4Y.


Prediction: Montreal 3 Edmonton 2

Washington vs. Nashville

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Ron's Comment: The Caps have hit a wall and can't find the net, as they are averaging 2.0 Goals For in their last 3 games and 2.4 goals for in their last 5. When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team - During the month of March - Coming off vs. Eastern Conference opponent - Coming off a 1 goal loss - Scored 3 or less goals FOR in their last game; The Capitals are 1-9 SU in this role.


Prediction: Nashville 3 Washington 2

San Jose vs. Minnesota

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Ron's Comment: The Wild are coming off a 6 game western road trip, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and I'm hoping they come out sluggish in the 3rd period this evening vs. a hungry Sharks team. When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Total is 5.0 - Coming off vs. Northwest division opponent; the Sharks are 12-3 SU in this spot.


Prediction: San Jose 4 Minnesota 2

Dallas vs. St.Louis

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Ron's Comment: I've come to the conclusion Steven Ott is killing the Stars on getting to the next level. First they got rid of Avery, now Dave Tippet has to deal with Ott's antics. To be honest, I don't buy into the “you hate to play against him, but love to have him on your team” motto; that's bullshit! This guy is a wrecking ball for the Stars and the quicker they move him off the team, the better the Stars will be as a team now that they have Steve Begin. Plus, then the Stars quality players can concentrate on playing hockey again. In fact, I'm pretty sure his teammates are going to get fed up sticking up and getting involved in stupid retaliatory scrums because Ott is looking to take peoples head off, instead of concentrating on playing hockey. As for tonight, same crap different pile for Dallas. Plus, when ST LOUIS team played as a home team - Before a conference game - Coming off a 2 game Road stand; the Blues are 17-6-1 SU in this spot.


Prediction: St.Louis 4 Dallas 2

Atlanta vs. Colorado

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Ron's Comment: Lehtonen is giving his team a chance to win every game and that's all you can ask for from your goaltender. When ATLANTA team Played as Road team as a Underdog - playing on Tuesday - Last 4 years - Allowed 2 or less goals AGAINST in their last game; The Thrashers are 8-4 SU in this underdog role the L4Y.



Prediction: Atlanta 5 Colorado 3

Sports’ betting is much like the stock market, you have to keep your finger on the pulse of the league and be on the watch out for the next “fanny and Freddie” type teams! In fact, as we’ve seen in Montreal, team chemistry and the environment of a club can tank faster then free beer at a frat party!

When a handicapper says there’s “good value” on the home team or the road team, what exactly do they mean by that expression? Keep in mind, when your betting on a game, sure your gut instinct will tell you to bet on a certain team, but does your wallet tell you the same thing? Let’s face it, any Joe blow off the street can bet on the Detroit Red Wings -300 at home vs. a team that is hitting 30% on the season and have not won a road game all year, but where’s the value in laying 3 times your initial wager? The risk is too greater than the reward, therefore, there’s no “value” in betting on the Red Wings at this price. Why would you want to give yourself ulcers by watching this game, especially if Detroit is down by 2 goals in the third period? It doesn’t make any financial sense, unless you throw them in a 3-team parlay that gives you a better return on your investment.

Let’s review the current “NHL Market” as of February 23, 2009. There’s roughly between 20 to 23 games for each NHL teams left on the regular season and which team would you consider to have “value” at this time of the year? In fact, I’ve gone through my database, as I wanted to see which teams have been consistent the last 45 days and which teams have tailed off a bit from their fast start of the season.

Don’t look now, but the New Jersey Devils without Marty Brodeur are one of your top value teams, as they are 15-5 (SU) since January 9th. Other good teams who have 12 wins since January 9th are the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets and Stars. Therefore, if you can get any of these teams as an UNDERDOG or laying -135 or less, I would consider them good value.

As for teams who might be over priced and you may want to pass when they are laying more then -140; are the Ducks, Avalanche, Rangers and Canadiens. The Islanders and Leafs have been the worst teams the last 45 days, but teams like Montreal and the Rangers are clubs who get too much respect from the bookmakers at times because they play in a big hockey market, and betting on them is like hitching a ride with a guy who’s had 8 beers!

As for betting on the totals; the UNDER is 14-6-0 for the Blackhawks in their last 20 games, while the OVER is 13-4-3 for the Habs. Speaking of questionable goaltending, now that Roberto Luongo is back, look to bet on the UNDER down the stretch in Canucks game, because the OVER was 13-4-0 for the Canucks since Jan 9th. However, now that Luongo is back and he’s getting his confidence back after his groin injury, I look for the Canucks to play more games that go under the total.

Make sure to check out my daily picks in the member’s area, because betting smarter will result in more good days then bad ones! Head over to www.phoenixsports.com as I release all my picks at the PST.