How many times have you looked at a game matchup stats page and was just over whelmed with statistical data? When you have a mountain of information at your disposal, every statistical angle clouds your judgment and then you just do analysis by paralysis.

Stick to a system that is simple and run with it!

If I can give you one piece of advice in the sports handicapping business, “keep things simple” and find a theory that works FOR YOU!

How do you handicap your games? Do you put more emphasis on offense or defense? Do you look for stats trends and angles or are you a contrarian handicapper? I’m a big believer in the Parity Value Index and it’s one of the main things I look at before I start crunching the numbers.

What exactly is the Parity Value Index (PVI)?

I believe everything runs in cycles in the numbers game and what you want to do is take a small cycle of 3 games and a large cycle (overall season record), combined them together which will produce a percentage of what the side and total should be in the next game.
The sportsbooks job is to get even action on a game, well, as close as possible. Therefore, this means they must balance and move the line of a game and that is usually an indication on which side or total is getting more action.

Furthermore, the “Parity Value Index” (PVI) will give you a percentage on the side and total of each game and this should be your starting point. Because, let’s face it, if a team wins 5 or more games against the spread, the bookmakers will want to put an end to that streak, because the public will normally jump on that team and it could eventually put a shop out of commission for a while.

FREE ATS TIP SHEET

Therefore, let’s start by giving you a good easy tool start to your handicapping and the best part about this tip sheet, it’s FREE! Click here to access the FREE: ATS Tip Sheet

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Ron Raymond’s Grey Cup Pick

Ron’s Pick: Winnipeg +7.0 vs. BC Lions (2* GREY CUP PICK)
Ron’s Pick: UNDER 50.5 (5* BEST BET)

Keys to selection: History has proven the best formula on winning a Grey Cup championship in football is when a team can play great defense and run the football. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers defense have been the most consistent in the league this season, but I wonder if RB Chris Garrett is the type of player who can have two great running games in a row?

The BC Lions have been the best second half team in the league and playing at home against one of the top defenses in the league, could add some pressure on their offense after a huge 17 point win over Edmonton last Sunday! Therefore, if the Bombers defense can stay consistent as they’ve been all season and find a way to shut down the Lions offense in the first half or minimize them to less than 10 points before half time, this could play well for the Blue Bombers getting +7.0 points. Let’s face it, the Bombers are playing in the Grey Cup because they have a very aggressive and stingy defense, offensively, they’ve only scored 30 points or more 4 times in 19 games this season, so don’t expect the Winnipeg’s offense to put up big numbers against a Lions defense who have kept their opponents offense to 14 points against in their last 3 games.

In my opinion, this 99th Grey Cup will be decided by field positioning and normally in close football games, they seem to come down to field goals and the nod should go to Lions place kicker Paul McCallum who has been Mr. Automatic this season. However, the Sportsbooks have put too many points on the board and they are anticipating the public to be betting on the home team, that’s why we are seeing the Lions as a Touchdown spread.

Grey Cup Side Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog -During the month of November -Vs Non Division Opponent -After a conference game - Coming off a game scored 17 points or more; The Road Team is 11-5-1 ATS since 1996.

Grey Cup Over/Under Stat of the Game When WINNIPEG Played as road team as a Underdog - During Last 3 Years - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; the UNDER is 18-2-0 for the Bombers in this role the last 3 seasons.

Ron’s Forecast

• BC Lions 24 Winnipeg Blue Bombers 19

Bet CFL Action with Bodog.

The 99th Grey Cup is here and the two clubs representing their conferences have every bit of hunger and motivation to prove that they belong. This Sunday bet on the hometown favorite B.C. Lions as they host the upstart Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the East Division. Can the Lions complete their storybook rise with a championship, or will the Blue Bombers of Swaggerville once again beat the CFL odds? Bet with bodog on Grey Cup Sunday....