Playing the Percentages

How much weight do you put in a line move? Do you trust it and what do you do about it? Do you follow it blindly or do you swim against the current and go against it? How much value is there in TV game line moves compared to small school vs. big school line moves?

Here’s my view; you have big school football programs like Florida, Michigan, Texas, and USC and the line can go up and down from -3 to -7 points on some weekends and that’s only for the side, the total can fluctuate anywhere from a field goal to a touchdown. However, when the line is moving on the “popular programs”, it’s because this is what most of the betting public is betting! It’s called Volume. The Sportsbook know they have to keep balance with games involving the big College Football programs; otherwise they will take a bath.

I’ve found that most line moves with big school name programs really balance out in the end and to find value, true to find those popular schools that are not mainstream media darlings, but still have a big enough names to get on ESPN U and FOX Sportsnet.

I’ve found great value in the Purdue vs. Oregon game for this weekend, side and total and you can see what I mean below. Bet smart and remember, less is more!

UCLA (45 to 46.5) vs. Tennessee (-8.5 to -10.5)

When All Conferences Played as home team as a Favorite with a Spread between -8.5 and -10.5 and Total is between 45 and 46.5 from January, 1 1996 to August, 1 2009;

• ATS Winner 15 - 22 - 0 (40.54 %)
• SU Winner 25 - 12 - 0 (67.57 %)
• O/U Winner: 17 - 20 - 0 (45.95 %)

Notre Dame (-3 to -4.5) vs. Michigan (48 – 50)

When All Conferences Played as road team as a Favorite with a Spread between 3 and 4.5 and Total is between 48 and 50 from January, 1 1996 to August, 1 2009;

• ATS Winner 20 - 19 - 2 (48.78 %)
• SU Winner 24 - 17 - 0 (58.54 %)
• O/U Winner: 21 - 19 - 1 (51.22 %)

USC (44.5 to 47) vs. Ohio State (-5 to -7)

When All Conferences Played as home team as a Favorite with a Spread between -5.5 and -7 and Total is between 44.5 and 47 from January, 1 1996 to August, 1 2009

• ATS Winner 28 - 43 - 3 (37.84 %)
• SU Winner 48 - 26 - 0 (64.86 %)
• O/U Winner: 38 - 35 - 1 (51.35 %)

Kansas (Road Favorite) s. UTEP (62-64)

When All Conferences Played as road team as a Favorite and Total is between 62 and 64 from January, 1 1996 to August, 1 2009

• ATS Winner 36 - 31 - 2 (52.17 %)
• SU Winner 51 - 18 - 0 (73.91 %)
• O/U Winner: 27 - 41 - 1 (39.13 %)

Stanford (43.5 to 46.5) vs. Wake Forest (-1 to 3.5)

When All Conferences Played as home team as a Favorite with a Spread between -1 and -3.5 and Total is between 43.5 and 46.5 from January, 1 1996 to August, 1 2009

• ATS Winner 65 - 69 - 1 (48.15 %)
• SU Winner 74 - 61 - 0 (54.81 %)
• O/U Winner: 54 - 81 - 0 (40 %)

Purdue (58.5 to 60.5) vs. Oregon (-9 to -12.5)

When All Conferences Played as home team as a Favorite with a Spread between -9 and -12.5 and Total is between 58.5 and 60.5 from January, 1 1996 to August,1 2009

• ATS Winner 14 - 6 - 0 (70 %)
• SU Winner 15 - 5 - 0 (75 %)
• O/U Winner: 5 - 14 - 1 (25 %)

Pac 10 and Big 10 Teams are a combined 6-0-0 (100%) to the UNDER.

ATSDatabase.com Super System: When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - After 8 to 11 days off - Coming off a 1 ATS lost - Coming off 1 under; The UNDER is 13-7-0 for the Home Team (Oregon) in this role since 1997.

Boston vs. Columbus

Versus

Ron's Comment: The Bruins have lost a bit of their zip they had at the beginning of the season and Mason has been outstanding at home. Furthermore, the Blue Jackets are 9-2 SU as a home underdog this season. When COLUMBUS team played as a home team - Last 5 years - Coming off 3 overs; the OVER is 7-3-0 for the Blue Jackets in this spot L5Y.


Prediction: Columbus 4 Boston 2

Calgary vs. New Jersey

Versus

Ron's Comment: Both teams are coming embarrassing loses to non-playoff competing teams, but the Devils losing 7-3 to the Islanders will not sit well with Sutter. In fact, look for Brodeur to rebound in hall of fame fashion this evening. When NEW JERSEY team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Western conference opponent - Scored 3 goals FOR in their last game - Coming off vs. Atlantic division opponent; The Devils are 9-2 SU in this role since 1997.


Prediction: New Jersey 3 Calgary 0

Buffalo vs. Philadelphia

Versus

Ron's Comment: The last 7 games between these two clubs in Philly has seen the over go a perfect 7-0 and with these 2 goalies this evening, I don't see why they can't make it 8-0-0! When PHILADELPHIA team played as Home team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Coming off vs. Central division opponent; the Flyers are 14-3-4 SU in this situation since 1997.


Prediction: Philadelphia 6 Buffalo 4

Florida vs. Pittsburgh

Versus

Ron's Comment: Normally I would be giving the Pens the nod in this spot, but they are coming off a huge upset special win over the Caps on Sunday and the Panthers have the defense to shutdown the Penguins top guns. When ANY NHL Team played as a Road team - playing on Tuesday - During the month of March - Before a conference game - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite; the Road Team (FLORIDA) is 10-5-2 SU in this spot since '97.


Prediction: Florida 3 Pittsburgh 2

Phoenix vs. Detroit

Versus

Ron's Comment: Detroit seems to play better with Conklin between the pipes and the Coyotes are still a young team who've been having finding the twain of late. When DETROIT team played as Home team as a Favorite - With 2 days off - Coming off a 1 game loss; the Red Wings are 16-3-3 SU in this situation.


Prediction: Detroit 5 Phoenix 1

NY Islanders vs. Toronto

Versus

Ron's Comment: Bit of a Law of Average play here on the Leafs as they lost a close one in Ottawa last night. Plus, the Islanders are coming off a huge win over the Devils, so this is a classic letdown spot here for Gordon's boys. When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Last 4 years - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog - Playing in back to back games; the Home Fave (TORONTO) is 14-2 SU in this role the L4Y.


Prediction: Toronto 5 NY Islanders 2

Edmonton vs. Montreal

Versus

Ron's Comment: Tough game to handicap, the Habs fired their coach yesterday, so there's some new energy in the room, but the Oilers are fighting for playoff ranking. Nevertheless, I'm siding with the Canadiens, as they are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home overall and 8-2 vs. Northwest division foes at the Bell Centre. When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Total is 5.5 - Last 4 years - With 1 day off - Coming off vs Pacific division opponent - Coming off a 2 goal win - Coming off a 1 game win; The Home Fave (MTL) is 11-4 SU in this situation the L4Y.


Prediction: Montreal 3 Edmonton 2

Washington vs. Nashville

Versus

Ron's Comment: The Caps have hit a wall and can't find the net, as they are averaging 2.0 Goals For in their last 3 games and 2.4 goals for in their last 5. When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team - During the month of March - Coming off vs. Eastern Conference opponent - Coming off a 1 goal loss - Scored 3 or less goals FOR in their last game; The Capitals are 1-9 SU in this role.


Prediction: Nashville 3 Washington 2

San Jose vs. Minnesota

Versus

Ron's Comment: The Wild are coming off a 6 game western road trip, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and I'm hoping they come out sluggish in the 3rd period this evening vs. a hungry Sharks team. When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Total is 5.0 - Coming off vs. Northwest division opponent; the Sharks are 12-3 SU in this spot.


Prediction: San Jose 4 Minnesota 2

Dallas vs. St.Louis

Versus

Ron's Comment: I've come to the conclusion Steven Ott is killing the Stars on getting to the next level. First they got rid of Avery, now Dave Tippet has to deal with Ott's antics. To be honest, I don't buy into the “you hate to play against him, but love to have him on your team” motto; that's bullshit! This guy is a wrecking ball for the Stars and the quicker they move him off the team, the better the Stars will be as a team now that they have Steve Begin. Plus, then the Stars quality players can concentrate on playing hockey again. In fact, I'm pretty sure his teammates are going to get fed up sticking up and getting involved in stupid retaliatory scrums because Ott is looking to take peoples head off, instead of concentrating on playing hockey. As for tonight, same crap different pile for Dallas. Plus, when ST LOUIS team played as a home team - Before a conference game - Coming off a 2 game Road stand; the Blues are 17-6-1 SU in this spot.


Prediction: St.Louis 4 Dallas 2

Atlanta vs. Colorado

Versus

Ron's Comment: Lehtonen is giving his team a chance to win every game and that's all you can ask for from your goaltender. When ATLANTA team Played as Road team as a Underdog - playing on Tuesday - Last 4 years - Allowed 2 or less goals AGAINST in their last game; The Thrashers are 8-4 SU in this underdog role the L4Y.



Prediction: Atlanta 5 Colorado 3