Ron Raymond's Sports Betting Blog

Link: http://www.phoenixsports.com

Kansas City – Cleveland: UNDER 7.5 -110Listed pitchers must go: Greinke vs. Lee

Get away day for both teams here today, the Royals travel back home to face the Tigers, while the Indians jet out to the Lone Star state for a weekend affair with Josh Hamilton and the Rangers.
Cliff Lee gets the nod today for the Tribe and he’s been stingy in his last 3 outings. In Lee’s last 3 games, he’s 3-0 and the team pitching staff has allowed 1.66 runs against in those starts. Zach Greinke toes the rubber for K.C. today for the Royals and when Greinke’s an Underdog L10 with a spread between +160 to +180; the UNDER is 7-2-1 in those starts.
Few team system plays follow our UNDER 7.5 (-110) selection today; here’s one on the Cleveland Indians. When a Cleveland team played as a Home team;
• After a division game
• Vs. Right handed pitchers
• Coming off a 2 game over
• Coming off a Home win

The UNDER is 11-5-1 since 1997 for the Tribe in this situation.
As for the Royals, when they played as a road team vs. an AL Conference foe an the total is 7.5; the UNDER is 12-4-0 since 2002.
This is a 12:05pm EST start, so bet it early.
Good luck.
Ron Raymond

Link: http://www.phoenixsports.com

Oakland – Minnesota: UNDER 8.0 (-130)
Listed pitchers must go: Duchscherer vs. Blackburn

Talk about two teams going North and South! The Oakland A’s seem to have fallen apart since the trade deadline and they’ll be facing the Minnesota Twins as a +115 road underdog tonight. The A’s are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games, while the Twins are 8-2 SU in their last 10. In fact, if you’re looking for a nice angle on the side, the Twins are 11-2 SU, as a Home Favorite the first game of a series this season.

However, I’m recommending the UNDER 8.0 (-130) in tonight’s AL showdown. Although both teams seem to have the OVER momentum going, especially for Minnesota whose last 3 games have gone OVER the total, the UNDER is the play.
Here’s a few betting system that support the UNDER. Here’s a team trend on the UNDER with the A’s that has cashed a ticket 81% of the time the last 5 years.

When OAKLAND team played as a Road team
• Vs Conference Opponent
• Last 5 years - Coming off a series loss
• Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent;

The UNDER is 9-2-0 for the A’s in this spot L5Y.

Furthermore, if you’re looking for a league system which involves “any team” coming off an exact situation, here’s an UNDER system trend that has cashed 64% of the time this season.

When ANY MLB Road team this season;
• Coming off a non division game vs. American League opponent
• Coming off a 2 game losing streak
• Coming off a day game
• Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series;

The UNDER is 11-6-0 this season for the Road Team in this role.

Play the UNDER in tonight’s Oakland vs. Minnesota game and good luck.
Ron Raymond

Link: http://www.phoenixsports.com

In the good ole days, the bookmakers had the advantage over the players; there were no computers and they had additional access to point spread statistics over the regular players. In fact, most bookmakers in those days subscribed to football newsletters that catered to the point spread crowd and the average “Joe and Jane” had no clue these types of newsletters existed. However, the times have changed, NFL bettors can now go to “Google” type in “ATS STATS” and find hundreds of sports betting statistics sites that can help them get the edge over their bookmaker or improve their rankings in their NFL Football pools.

Now, don’t let the title of this article make you believe there are only 10 top NFL Handicapping stats and angles that exist to help you win on a consistent basis. Evolution is a funny cat, it forces everybody and everything to get better and it could be a vicious cycle that has its good points and it’s bad ones. The sports betting evolution is a numbers game and if you only use “old school” habits to beat the NFL or any other sports, you will be the bookmakers best friends; as you will be putting his kids through college and contributing to his new west wing in the buuuurrbbs!

Here’s the beautiful thing about sports betting, it’s like golf in many ways, it’s always a challenge to be consistent and it’ll play with your emotions on a daily basis. Some days you will be King of the World and other days you will just wish you had stayed in bed; as it could slam you hard!

The secret to my betting success is simple and I preach these words to anybody who will listen; believe in the “Law of Average” and use the “Less is more” concept. In fact, you can use these two theories in anything you do in life and watch how your life will change.

Now that I’m finished playing Doctor Frasier Crane, let’s see if we can make your NFL betting an enjoyable experience and improve your bankroll or contest status for the upcoming season.

Everybody has their own way of Handicapping sports; I believe sports handicapping must be broken down in 3 categories: Statistical, Situational and General knowledge/Gut Feeling!

Keep in mind, your not betting on this team vs. that team on Sunday, you’re betting on whether this team can beat that team by the pointspread. When you really think about it, the bookmaker has already told you who’s going to win the game, he’s telling you right off the bat, the Dallas Cowboys will win by 3 points over the Washington Redskins and the OVER/UNDER will land on 43.0 points! Tada! There, half the battle is over with! Now that you know the Cowboys are favored to win by 3 points and the O/U to land on 43 points, the question all sports bettors must now ask themselves is; Do I believe them or do I think I have the numbers to prove the linemaker’s wrong? How did the Bookmakers come up with minus 3 and the over under to land on 43 points?

This is where your statistical handicapping must come in and I’ve always told my clients to come up with their own power ratings or formula to come up with their own numbers. I use what is called an ATS Calculator and it leads me on the right path to where the numbers should be around.

As for your Situational handicapping, this is where I will share with you ten statistical angles to consider and look out for when handicapping football. If you’re asking yourself why doesn’t he name them his “top 10” handicapping stats and angles? If you teach everybody how to fish, nobody will buy fish at the market anymore!

1) Before Bye Week: The NFL season is a 17 week grueling grind on the body and having a week off to rest is what most NFL players look forward too, they use this week off to spend it wisely. Therefore, coaches normally give the players a bit of incentive to win the game before the bye week, so everybody feels good before they come back to practice the following week.

ATS Stat: When any NFL team is a +3.5 to +6.0 Road Underdogs before a bye week; the Road Dog is 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since 1983.

2) Before and After a Monday Night Game: Playing on Monday Night Football is like the Super Bowl to some organization and players, they seem to think it’s their night; it’s the “highlighted” Game of the Week and everybody is watching. Plus, it’s the night where the “Sharpie” made its debut after Terrell Owens as a Forty-Niner, pulled the Sharpie out of his sock and signed the football after scoring a touchdown!

ATS Stats: Speaking of the 49ers, they are 15-2 SU before a Monday Night football game.

3) Law of Average Handicapping: If the bookmakers didn’t put out a line on the games, the favorites would win between 70 to 80 percent of the games played. However, because there’s a number, you have to find the law of average and use it to your statistical advantage. One of my LOA tips is to “Play on a team coming off an ATS win vs. a team coming off an ATS lost.” As much as I would love to take credit for this angle, it belongs to my handicapping friend Ross Benjamin.

4) OVER/UNDER situations: Allot of sports betting is based on perception, especially when betting on what I call “LWS” (Last Week Syndrome). Bettors tend to recap a teams past game performance and double up on the same occurrence happening again the following week. If there’s one thing I’ve learned betting on Pro Football, never base your decision on last week’s performance, good or bad. Normally when a team gets blown out by 21 points or more and they are playing a team who just won by 14 points or more, play the UNDER in the next game between these two teams.

5) 30/90 Situation: Many pro gamblers play this angle on college football; When you have a team that has scored less than 30 points in their last 3 games and have given up more then 90 points in those games; play on this team in their fourth game against the spread. Again, this is based mostly on perception that this team will get blown out and normally they will have great line value.

6) Division Sandwich Games: Here’s a nice Pro football handicapping betting angle to consider called a “division sandwich”. Play against the team who is caught between two division games; as they are caught in a sports emotional roller coaster. Division games are very important in the Pro’s, as each team’s goal is to win the division and playing 2 division games in 3 weeks is very taxing on teams.

7) Dome Teams on Grass Surface: Everybody has a thought on dome teams playing on Grass surface, is it fact or myth? Here’s how current dome teams did SU playing on grass surface coming off a Dome game; don’t bet the farm on them SU!

• Atlanta: 18-66-1 (SU)
• Detroit: 24-80 (SU)
• Indianapolis: 44-52 (SU)
• Minnesota : 37-59 (SU)
• New Orleans : 36-59 (SU)
• St.Louis: 33-55 (SU)

8) Super Bowl Teams First 3 Weeks: Everybody loves to bet on the Champs, but not gamblers! With perception being a bookmaker’s best friend, the linemakers know they can get away with a point or two when they hang a number on the defending Super Bowl Champion the first 3 weeks of the season.

9) Look ahead Games: Another angle to consider is the “look-ahead game”, football and all sports for that matter involve high emotions, especially at the College football and basketball level. Therefore, you will want to keep an eye out on the schedule for when you have a successful team playing a squad that has won less than 30% of their games during the season, and they have a big game on deck. In this situation, play against the team who’s favored because you will get more line value on the underdog. The reason is simple, they are overlooking the team that is not a threat to them and they are looking ahead to the “emotional” game. This angle is “huge” at the College football and basketball level.

10) Letdown Games: Using the emotion angle again, consider playing against teams who are coming off a huge blowout win or a big “important” game, as it’s nearly impossible to match the same emotions and intensity of the previous game. This is called a “letdown spot”, as teams tend to let their guards down after a big win and the bookmakers tend to “over price” this team in the next game.

On a parting note, it’s important to keep your sports betting goals in perspective and realize you’re betting for entertainment and live another betting week, not to pay the rent!

Today’s Baseball Pick
Minnesota PK -125 over Milwaukee

Keys to selection: When MINNESOTA played as a home team - During Last 5 Years - With SU Record of 7 Win 0 Lost in L7G; The Twins are 9-1 SU in this role L5Y.

Baseball Streakers

Who’s Hot: Minnesota 9 SU Wins, Kansas City 5 SU Wins, Tampa Bay 3 SU Wins.

Who’s Not: San Diego 5 SU Losses, Florida 4 SU Losses, Colorado 4 SU Losses.

O/U Streaks: Baltimore 4 Over, Pittsburgh 4 Over, Washington 3 Over, Chicago Cubs 3 Over, Philadelphia 6 Under, Chicago White Sox 4 Under, Cleveland 4 Under, Los Angeles Dodgers 4 Under, Oakland 3 Under, Atlanta 3 Under , Milwaukee 3 Under , San Francisco 3 Under.
Today’s Stats and Trends

Arizona vs. Florida: When FLORIDA team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - During the month of June - 1st game of a series; The Marlins are 8-2 SU in this spot.

Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Playing on Friday - Coming off a series loss - Coming off a 1 game loss; The Cubs are 1-9 SU in this role.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland: When CINCINNATI team played as a road team - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During the 2008 season; The OVER is 12-5-0 for the Reds in this spot.

Colorado vs. Detroit: When COLORADO team Played as road team as a Underdog - During the month of June - Playing on Friday; The Rockies are 5-15 SU in this situation.

Atlanta vs. Toronto: When ATLANTA team played as a Road team - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 1 game win - Coming off a series win; The OVER is 11-3-0 for the Braves in this spot since ‘97.

Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh: When PITTSBURGH team Played as home team as a Underdog - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During the month of June; The Pirates are 3-13 SU in this situation since ’01.

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: When NY YANKEES team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Total is 9.5; The Yankees are 3-7 SU in this situation.

Baltimore vs. Washington: When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team - Before a non division game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a night game - Coming off a 3 game over; The OVER is 12-4-1 for the Nats in this spot.

Boston vs. Houston: When BOSTON team Played as road team as a Favorite - Total is 9.5 - Playing on Friday; The Red Sox are 12-5 SU in this situation.

Philadelphia vs. Texas: When PHILADELPHIA team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Coming off a day game - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series; The Phillies are 2-11 SU in this position.

St.Louis vs. Kansas City: When ST LOUIS team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - During a night game - Coming off a 1 run lost - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series; The OVER is 9-2-0 for the Cardinals in this role.

Milwaukee vs. Minnesota: When MINNESOTA team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off 1 under - Coming off a 1 run win; The Twins are 9-2 SU in this position the L5Y.

San Francisco vs. Oakland: When OAKLAND team played as a Home team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a day game; The A’s are 10-0 SU in this situation since ’97.

Seattle vs. San Diego: When SAN DIEGO team Played as home team as a Favorite - During a night game - Vs AL WEST opponent; The Padres are 4-12 SU in this role as a home favorite.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as road team as a Favorite - Playing on Friday - With 1 day off; The Angels are 8-2 SU in this situation.

Welcome to the “what’s in it for me” sports fan generation!

Darwin once stated; “….Natural selection acts only by taking advantage of slight successive variations; she can never take a great and sudden leap, but must advance by short and sure, though slow steps." That’s why you cannot change things with extreme measures, as it’s perceived as a shock to the system. My favorite example is the car, look how the evolution of the Mustang has progressed since the ‘60’s to the Shelby GT 500 of today?

In my own opinion, that’s why internet gaming is taking it’s time to be accepted by the masses and the decision makers at the top, as gaming in all forms needs to be socially accepted by a large part of society, but it’s slowly getting there with the help of the poker, horse racing and fantasy league players.

Nortel Networks had a great slogan in the 90’s; “what do you want the internet to be?”

The same can be said with today’s sports world, it’s not like your fathers and grand father’s sports world anymore. During those years, nobody talked about salaries and they all had a favorite player and team. Since the evolution of the internet, today’s younger generation of fans want a different interest in sports and that’s why sports betting and fantasy leagues have taken away personal allegiances to sports teams. In today’s sports world, bettors and fantasy players care more about certain teams and players on certain nights. It’s all about “what’s in it for me” on this night, winning my wager or collecting some fantasy points!

The evolution of sports business and the way we watch sports is forcing us to make an investment into the sports we are watching and following. When you consider the sports fans are now paying to watch the game that is not in their local market, it’s forcing them to make a decision and an investment. Do you really think the average sports fan wants to pay $400 to $1000 a year on special sports package because it’s a form of entertainment? Perhaps some will, but the majority of the younger and mid generations of sports fans are watching because they have a “special interest” in the game or event they are watching.

This is not about following a certain team or player anymore; this is about ones personal interest and outcome of a game. One of those forms of interest is sports betting, like it or hate it, it’s here to stay! The internet has taken away allot of the networks ad dollars away and that’s why you’re seeing the newspaper industry losing money each quarter. In fact, according to a report last week by Bloomberg, “newspaper advertising has now dropped eight straight quarters… The dollar volume fell to $8.43 billion, which sounds like a lot of advertising—until it is divided among all the nation’s local, regional and national papers.” Other reports suggest they haven’t seen such a decline since the early 80’s, which means the internet is playing a bigger role in all aspects and since the ad dollars aren’t picking up the tab anymore, it’s going to force the consumer to pay for their “on demand” entertainment, such as “sports watching”.

Which brings the question, when will the new “sports fan revolution” take place? If I’m going to spend $400 to $1000 on sports packages and pay per view events, it has to be looked at in some form of an investment like one does in the stock market. Sports bettors or Fantasy league players, who invest in these sports package, want their piece of the pie in some way, so they can get their Return on Investment back! Players leave teams, they don’t care about you or the team; they care about the financial gains that will provide for their own personal growth. When the average sports fans realize it’s not about following a team or a player and more about satisfying your own needs, then the sports fans revolution will start to take place. When a player is a free agent or gets traded, do you really think they are taking the fans into consideration? Of course not, it’s about their own interest, just like bettors and fantasy sports fans look after their own interest when watching a game.

What can we expect in the future from our sports radio and TV stations? I see stations like ESPN, Fox Sports getting less popular, as the Sportscenter type shows will not match the newer shows who treat their shows like a stock market report, with a fantasy sports and betting angle incorporated. Instead of talking about last night’s game, look for sports handicappers and regular bettors playing a bigger role and hyping up the nightly games with gaming tips to help their own personal interest of the night. Plus, the whole sports media is turning everything into a “on-demand” world, so get ready to pay for listening to your favorite radio station and TV station within the next 7 to 10 years. Again, you can’t shock the “system” by making drastic changes, that’s why everything is done with baby steps, or else you will have a negative revolt from those who don’t want to pay or accept the new world order in sports.

There’s a new breed of sports fans out there today and they don’t care about who wins or lose, just as long as they cover the spread baby! Get ready to join the new sports fans revolution and like the slogan goes; “What do you want your sports to be?”