Ron Raymond’s 2011 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions

By Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond

April 11, 2011

Bottom line, “Defense wins Championship”!

I know its cliché, but ask any coach and they will tell you, if you can’t play defense, you are living on borrowed time in the playoffs! What has been the biggest adjustment to the game since the 2004-05 NHL lockout and the answer is simple, “parity”!

Anybody can win on any given night and parity has meant more 1-goal games. In fact, get use to seeing 1-goal games in the playoffs, because of the 16 teams in the NHL Playoffs this season; they have seen a combined average of 47.94% of their games decided by 1 goal.

Plus, since the lockout, teams who have finished in the top 2 of their conference have won the Stanley Cup. (2011: Washington, Philadelphia, Vancouver, San Jose)

Therefore, I like the San Jose Sharks at +625 to win the 2011 Stanley Cup over the Washington Capitals. I’m hoping my Connecticut Huskies prediction to win the NCAA March Madness tournament karma carries over to the rink, but if you wanted one live dog to win the Stanley Cup that pays off at the window, I’m laying 1-unit on the Tampa Bay Lightning at +2250.

Odds to win Stanley Cup

• Washington Capitals +425
• Vancouver Canucks +385
• San Jose Sharks +625
• Detroit Red Wings +1215
• Philadelphia Flyers +1015
• Boston Bruins +825
• Pittsburgh Penguins +1215
• Tampa Bay Lightning +2250
• Montreal Canadiens +2550
• Buffalo Sabres +2550
• New York Rangers +3050
• Anaheim Ducks +1415
• Nashville Predators +3050
• Phoenix Coyotes +3250
• Los Angeles Kings +4050
• Chicago Blackhawks +4050

Series Predictions and Prices

(8) NY Rangers (+180) vs. (1) Washington Capitals (-240)

Ron’s Prediction: The Washington Capitals have bought into Bruce Boudreau’s system of playing defensive hockey and it showed in their over/under totals. The UNDER was 58-23-1 for Washington this season, with a combined record of 22-4-1 during the month of January and February. If you want to win a Stanley Cup, you better be committed to playing defensive hockey and get ready for a ton of 1-goal games. The Rangers don’t have enough depth at the 3^rd and 4^th line positions and Henrik Lundqvist is an average goalie at best and his best days seem behind him. The Rangers are very inconsistent, but if you want one positive note on the blue shirts, they are 13-6 SU on the road in 1 goal games this season. It’s too bad there are no shootouts in the playoffs, because Henrik is one of the best in those situations. Washington in 5 games!

(7) Buffalo Sabres (+120) vs. (2) Philadelphia (-150)

Ron’s Prediction: The Buffalo Sabres are the early favorites to make the biggest upset in the first round and the way the Flyers have been playing the last 30 days, it’s hard to go against the pundits. The Sabres are 5-10 SU the last 30 days and Chris Pronger is still a question mark for a first round appearance. Without Pronger, the Flyers have a deep hole to fill on the back end and just like every playoff year, the main question in Philadelphia is this; “Can the Flyers win with Bobrovksy or Boucher?” I know one thing the Flyers don’t want to hear during Happy Hour? It’s Miller Time! Ryan Miller is capable of stealing a series, he’s got experience and there’s new life in Buffalo thanks to their new owner Terry Pegula. However, I like the grinders in Philly and once the regular season is over, it’s a whole new season! Flyers in 7 games!

(6) Montreal Canadiens (+170) vs. (3) Boston (-210)

Ron’s Prediction: The Boston Bruins will have home ice advantage and they better use it to their advantage. The Canadiens lost 2 of their last 3 games vs. the Bruins, mostly because Boston used the intimidation card and played more physical vs. a smaller and faster Montreal hockey team. However, if Boston tries to goon it up vs. Montreal, their power play will make them pay the “price” (no pun intended)! In fact, Montreal has the X factor and that’s the goalie with 38 wins! Price has been outstanding this season and has played in some meaningful games during his career and I look for Boston to get out of control with their violent ways and Montreal will make them pay with their special teams and quicker feet. Furthermore, I look for the Bruins to crash the net and try to get PK Subban off his game, because Boston knows he’s the straw that stirs the drink on the back end of their power play. In addition, of the 16 playoff teams who are in the post season, Montreal has played in the least amount of 1-goal games, which tells me goaltending and high scoring games are a factor in their outcomes. Montreal in 6 games!

(5) Tampa Bay Lightning (+160) vs. (4) Pittsburgh (-200)

Ron’s Prediction: It’s been a different season for Dan Bylsma behind the Penguins bench this season without Crosby and Malkin in the second half. However, it goes to show you how much of a great coach Bylsma is for getting his Penguins to the post season as a #4 seed. Yet, in order to be a great hockey team, you need to have your best players playing at their highest level and without Crosby and Malkin in the line up; the Pens can’t depend on guys like Kovalev to step their game up. In fact, Kovalev has not had a 2 or more point game since February 3^rd. The Penguins have the sandpaper guys to win, guys like Staal, Talbot and Rupp, but who’s going to put the puck in the net? Tampa Bay has the team to cause the upset and their head coach Guy Boucher is known to be creative in the playoffs and if you look at his playoff record the last 2 years, the guy is a winner! Winners win and I look for Boucher to bring the Lightning deep in the playoffs. Tampa Bay in 6 games!

(8) Chicago Blackhawks (+200) vs. (1) Vancouver (-280)

Ron’s Prediction: The Vancouver Canucks had a great season, first overall, the only team to reach 50 or more wins with 54 and the Sedins racked up tons of points. Luongo finished second in goals against average with a 2.11 GAA (Tim Thomas 2.10 GAA) and tied with Carey Price for the most wins with 38. However, here’s the bad news for Vancouver; you have a first round showdown with Toews, Kane and Hossa! The Western Conference was truly the wild, wild, west this season and now the Canucks are going to be in a tough fight to make the second round. Vancouver finished the second half with a 27-14 SU record, better than Chicago’s 21-17 SU record. But, the problem I have with Vancouver, they were a .500 team at home in 1-goal games! Vancouver played in 14 four or more goal games at home this season, winning 11 of the 14. That’s great, but if you can’t win the close games, you’re toast in the playoffs. Even though, the Blackhawks are not as deep in nets as they were last year, they still have a solid core on defense with Seabrook, Keith and Campbell. Plus, they have the X factor in Sharp who racked up 34 goals this season. Chicago in 7 games!

(7) Los Angeles Kings (+180) vs. (2) San Jose (-210)

Ron’s Prediction: The San Jose Sharks have been one of the top teams the last 2 months and a half month with their 23-9 SU record. In fact, the Canucks are 23-9 SU during that same period and Washington has been the king of the Eastern Conference with their 21-10 SU record since February 1^st 2011. In my opinion, the Sharks have flown under the radar screen this season and might have the best goalie in the game right now with Antti Niemi. When you look at the Sharks line up, you have grit, scoring and a solid defense, not to mention a possible Calder winner in former Ottawa 67’s Logan Couture. The Kings saved their season down the stretch, winning 9 of 14 games in March and Quick had the 4^th best goals against average in the league. The Kings did well in 1-goal games with a 22-15 record, but are not as deep as the Sharks in the 3^rd and 4^th line department. Plus, when you have a veteran QB on the point like Dan Boyle who has a Stanley Cup ring from his Lightning days in 2003-04, gives the team confidence on the power play. Bottom line, Niemi has the potential to steal some road games and that will allow the Sharks to go deep in the playoffs. Sharks in 5 games!

(6) Phoenix Coyotes (+180) vs. (3) Detroit (-240)

Ron’s Prediction: The Detroit Red Wings have been battling some injuries down the stretch, but proved on Sunday why they are not to be overlooked in the post season. Just when you think the Red Wings are going to fade into the sunset, they grind out a 4-3 win over Chicago on Sunday and it was a nothing game for Detroit, because they already preserved a playoff spot and finished 1^st in the Central division. However, they approached their game vs. the Hawks like a playoff game, because they understood the situation the Hawks were in and it felt like a playoff game. When I look at the Coyotes line up, I scratch my head and wonder how on earth did this edition of the Coyotes make the playoffs? Their 3^rd and 4^th line guys resemble an AHL line up and they have one 20 goal scorer in Shane Doan. Yet, they have one of the top goaltenders in the league in Bryzkalov and one of the sharpest minds behind the bench in Dave Tippet. However, Detroit are one of the best teams I’ve seen in years who can shut you down in the playoffs and Red Wings Coach Mike Babcock has the gift to get his message across and make them play hard. Detroit has the team to go all the way, but do they have the goaltending to bring them all the way! Detroit in 5 games!

(5) Nashville Predators (-165) vs. (4) Anaheim Ducks (+135)

Ron’s Prediction: Every year, there’s one series which each game seems to be heading to overtime, the Predators and Ducks give me that feeling about their upcoming series. Talk about coincidence, you know that old saying, “what goes around, comes around”. Well, a past goalie might come back to haunt his old team! Anaheim Ducks goalie Dan Ellis was the Predators netminder from 2007 to 2010; went to Tampa Bay last season and was traded to Anaheim at the trade deadline. Ellis is 8-3 SU with the Ducks this year and it will be interesting to see how their goaltending situation plays out in the post season. Here’s the bad news for Nashville, when Sergei Kostitsyn is your top scorer with Martin Erat, you shouldn’t carry much hope! The Ducks have been the masters of the 1-goal games this season, they’ve seen 53.6% of their games decided by a goal and they finished the year with a 29-15 SU record in those games. The Ducks are currently sitting at +1415 to win the Stanley Cup, but without a solid back up to Ellis, I have a feeling it could be their sticking point of going all the way. The Ducks have many veterans on their team and they won the Cup in 2007, but Giguere stood on his head that year and they beat Ottawa in 5 games. Ducks in 6 games!

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